It’s been less than a year since the Oscars aired a stripped-down version of the show at Union Station, but the 95th annual Academy Awards is set to take place March 27, back at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. With voting opening March 17, we take a look at the top categories and where things stand.
A Perfect 10
For the first year, the Oscars expanded the best picture race to guarantee 10 films. (In the past, there was the potential for 10, based on voting totals.) Jane Campion’s Netflix drama “The Power of the Dog” leads the pack with 12 nominations overall and a slew of best picture wins from critics’ groups and BAFTA. But Apple Original Films’ crowd-pleaser “CODA” has been picking up steam, including a batch of wins for supporting actor and the coveted ensemble prize from the SAG Awards — a category in which “Power of the Dog” failed to land a nomination. But “CODA” goes into the night with three Oscar nominations, compared to the seven for “Belfast,” Kenneth Branagh’s autobiographical tale from Focus Features, which landed an ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards and scored a director nom for Branagh.
While Denis Villeneuve missed out on a directing nom this year, don’t underestimate Warner Bros.’ “Dune,” a hit with critics and audiences that hasn’t missed a single guild competition and comes in with 10 Oscar nominations. Warner Bros. also has a real audience favorite (and lead actor front-runner in Will Smith) in “King Richard,” a rousing, feel-good true story.
Critical faves to keep an eye on include Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza,” from MGM/United Artists Releasing, and Ryûsuke Hamaguchi’s “Drive My Car” from Janus/Sideshow Films. Both films scored noms for their directing and screenplay and have passionate followers sure to place them in the top slot on preferential ballots.
Steven Spielberg is also nominated in director for 20th Century Studios’ “West Side Story,” and though it underperformed at the box office, it’s now streaming on both Disney Plus and HBO Max, perfect timing for voters to catch it.
Guillermo del Toro returned to big screen for the first time since he won three Oscars for “The Shape of Water” with Searchlight’s “Nightmare Alley,” which is popular below the line for its stunning crafts work. And if you’re looking for thoughtful but populist entertainment, few movies have been seen more than Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up,” which was massively viewed on Netflix and also scored a SAG Award ensemble nom for its starry, talented cast.
A Direct Path
All signs point to a historic win for Campion and “The Power of the Dog,” making her only the third woman to take the prize — she is already the only woman nominated twice in the category. Over the weekend she pulled off a trifecta of wins at DGA, BAFTA and Critics Choice, a powerful combo that’s difficult to argue against. At the Oscars she will face off against fellow DGA nominees Anderson, Branagh, Spielberg but also Hamaguchi, who replaced Villeneuve in the Oscar lineup. Spielberg also made history as the first director nominated in six different decades and he is, of course, Spielberg.
In the Lead
Will Smith and Jessica Chastain both landed their third Oscar nominations for their lead roles (in “King Richard” and “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” respectively) and both landed big wins at the SAG Awards. While that is no longer a surefire indicator of who will win Oscar, it doesn’t hurt that both also scored wins at Critics Choice and Smith took home the BAFTA.
One actor Smith is up against is Benedict Cumberbatch, who stars in what many feel is the best picture front-runner, “The Power of the Dog,” and delivers a transformative performance against type. The same could be said of Andrew Garfield, who learned to sing and play piano for “Tick, Tick … Boom!” and delivers a joyous turn as the late Jonathan Larson. Previous winners Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”) and Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”) round out the competitive race.
Chastain is an actor’s actor who completely transformed to play televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker with complexity and compassion. But Chastain didn’t have to compete at the SAG Awards with Kristen Stewart for her stunning work as Princess Diana in “Spencer,” or Penélope Cruz, who has been making major strides for her heartbreaking work in Pedro Almodóvar’s “Parallel Mothers.” Rounding out the category are SAG nominees and previous Oscar-winners Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”) and Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”). We’ve seen Colman surprise in this category before, so don’t be shocked if it happens again.
Showing Support
Supporting actor and actress is filled with new faces: eight out of 10 are celebrating their first nomination — only Judi Dench (“Belfast”) and J.K. Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”) are previous nominees/winners. Troy Kotsur (“CODA”) and Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”) took home the honors at the SAG Awards, BAFTA and Critics Choice.
At SAG, DeBose only had to face Kirsten Dunst for “Power of the Dog,” a stellar actor who was long overdue for her first nomination. At the Oscars, she is also up against the beloved Dench, who scores some of the most emotional moments in “Belfast.” But if Smith is the perceived lead actor front-runner, it’s hard to ignore his “King Richard” co-star Aunjanue Ellis, a respected veteran actor who goes toe to toe with him in every scene. And then there’s Jessie Buckley in “The Lost Daughter,” an up-and-comer who shared the role with Colman — no easy task.
Kotsur faced Kodi Smit-McPhee, a critical fave, at SAG already but now will also go against Smit-McPhee’s “The Power of the Dog” co-star Jesse Plemons, as well as Simmons, and “Belfast” actor Ciarán Hinds. Both supporting categories historically love surprises, so anything could happen.