Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.
To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE.
2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
UPDATED: Sept. 24, 2020 (PRE-SEASON)
One of the most competitive races we’ll have this year is in the adapted screenplay race, even this far out. “Nomadland” and “One Night in Miami” will be competitive but “The Father” has already planted its stake in the category. We still await quite a bit more contenders and see how they shake things up.
† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories
Photo provided by Amazon Studios
AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
"Nomadland"(Searchlight Pictures)Chloé Zhao (based on the book "Nomadland" by Jessica Bruder)
"One Night in Miami..."(Amazon Studios)Kemp Powers (based on the play "One Night in Miami..." by Kemp Powers)
"The Father"(Sony Pictures Classics)Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play "Le Père" by Florian Zeller)
"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"(Netflix)†Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" by August Wilson)
"News of the World"(Universal Pictures)Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass (based on the novel "News of the World" by Paulette Jiles)
Netflix
NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:
"I'm Thinking of Ending Things"(Netflix)Charlie Kaufman (based on the novel "I'm Thinking of Ending Things" by Iain Reid)
"First Cow"(A24)Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel "The Half Life" by Jonathan Raymond)
"The White Tiger"(Netflix)†Ramin Bahrani (based on the novel "The White Tiger" by Aravind Adiga)
"French Exit"(Sony Pictures Classics)Patrick deWitt (based on the novel "French Exit" by Patrick deWitt)
"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"(Paramount Pictures)Suzan-Lori Parks (based on "Chasing the Scream: The First and Last Days of the War on Drugs" by Johann Hari)
Photo credit: Dean Rogers / Searchlight Pictures
TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:
"The Personal History of David Copperfield"(Searchlight Pictures)Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci (based on "David Copperfield" by Charles Dickens)
"The Midnight Sky"(Netflix)†Mark L. Smith (based on the novel "Good Morning, Midnight" by Lily Brooks-Dalton)
"Hillbilly Elegy"(Netflix)†Vanessa Taylor (based on the novel "Hillbilly Elegy" by J.D. Vance)
"The Life Ahead"(Netflix)Edoardo Ponti (based on the novel by Romain Gary)
"Radioactive"(Amazon Studios)Jack Thorne (based on the novel "Radioactive: Marie & Pierre Curie: A Tale of Love and Fallout" by Lauren Redniss)
"No Time to Die"(United Artists Releasing)Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, Cary Joji Fukunaga, Phoebe Waller-Bridge (based on the character James Bond created by Ian Fleming)
"The Outpost"(Screen Media Films)Eric Johnson, Paul Tamasy (based on the book "The Outpost: An Untold Story of American Valor" by Jake Tapper)
"Everybody's Talking About Jamie"(20th Century Studios)Tom MacRae, Dan Gillespie Sells (based on the musical "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" by Tom MacRae and Dan Gillespie Sells)
"Shirley"(Neon)Sarah Gibbons (based on the novel "Shirley" by Susan Scarf Merrell)
"Wonder Woman 1984"(Warner Bros.)Patty Jenkins, Geoff Johns, David Callaham (based on the comic "Wonder Woman" by William Moulton Marston)
Dan McFadden
ALSO IN CONTENTION:
"Emma."(Focus Features)Eleanor Catton (based on the book "Emma" by Jane Austen)
"Mulan"(Walt Disney Pictures)Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Lauren Hynek, Elizabeth Martin (based on Disney's "Mulan" by Tony Bancroft)
"The Glorias"(Roadside Attractions)Sarah Ruhl, Julie Taymor (based on the book "My Life on the Road" by Gloria Steinheim)
"Greyhound"(Apple TV Plus)Tom Hanks (based on the book "The Good Shepherd" by C.S. Forester)
"Martin Eden"(Kino Lorber)Mauricio Braucci (based on the novel "Martin Eden" by Jack London)
"Death on the Nile"(20th Century Studios)Michael Green (based on the novel "Death on the Nile" by Agatha Christie)
"How to Build a Girl"(IFC Films)Caitlin Moran (based on the novel "How to Build a Girl" by Caitlin Moran)
"Let Him Go"(Focus Features)Thomas Bezucha (based on the novel "Let Him Go" by Larry Watson)
"Coming 2 America"(Paramount Pictures)Kenya Barris (based on the characters by Eddie Murphy)
"The Prom"(Netflix)Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin (based on the musical "The Prom" by Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin and Matthew Sklar)
MORE AWARDS CONTENDERS:
"Antlers"(Searchlight Pictures)C. Henry Chaisson, Nick Antosca, Scott Cooper (based on the short story "The Quiet Boy" by Nick Antosca)
"Lost Girls"(Netflix)Michael Werwie (based on the book "Lost Girls: An Unsolved American Mystery" by Robert Kolker)
"Wendy"(Searchlight Pictures)Benh Zeitlin, Eliza Zeitlin (based on the book "Peter Pan" by J.M. Barrie)
"Little Fish"(IFC Films)Mattson Tomlin (based on the short story by Aja Gabel)
"Hope Gap"(Screen Media Films)William Nicholson (based on the book "The Retreat of Moscow" by William Nicholson)
"The Call of the Wild"(Walt Disney Pictures)Michael Green (based on the book "The Call of the Wild" by Jack Landon)
"Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)"(Warner Bros.)Christina Hodson (based on characters created by DC Comics)
"Bad Boys for Life"(Sony Pictures)Chris Bremner, Peter Craig, Joe Carnahan (based on characters by George Gallo)
"The King's Man"(20th Century Studios)Karl Gajdusek, Matthew Vaughn (based on the comic book "The Secret Service" by Mark Millar and Dave Gibbons)
"Passing"(No U.S. Distribution)†Rebecca Hall (based on the novel "Passing" by Nella Larsen)
Photo courtesy of Warner Bros.
UNRANKED AWARDS CONTENDERS:
"Cinderella"(Sony Pictures) – Kay Cannon, James Corden (inspired by the book “Cinderella” by Charles Perrault)"Dune"(Warner Bros.) – Jon Spaiths, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth (based on the novel “Dune” by Frank Herbert)†"The True History of the Kelly Gang"(IFC Films) – Shaun Grant (based on the book “True History of the Kelly Gang” by Peter Carey)"Zola"(A24) – Janicza Bravo, Jeremy O. Harris (based on “Zola Tells All: The Real Story Behind the Greatest Stripper Saga Ever Tweeted”
by David Kushner and Tweets by Aziah “Zola” King)†
† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.