Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.
To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE.
2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST DIRECTOR
UPDATED: Oct. 8, 2020 (PRE-SEASON)
The genetic makeup of the best director race is different than in previous years, from the top-ranked person down to the unranked contenders. There are a “decent” amount of women in the race (refreshing to see but can still be vastly improved), people of color (although Latinx seems to be struggling this year despite a strong showing the last few years) and younger talent on their first or second feature films. It’ll be interesting to see how the branch embraces them all this year as the race unfolds.
† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories
AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
Chloé Zhao"Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures)
Aaron Sorkin"The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)
David Fincher†"Mank" (Netflix)
Regina King"One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)
Florian Zeller"The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)
Quil Lemons for Variety
NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:
Paul Greengrass"News of the World" (Universal Pictures)
Shaka King†"Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.)
George C. Wolfe"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)
Spike Lee"Da 5 Bloods" (Netflix)
Lee Isaac Chung†"Minari" (A24)
Variety/REX/Shutterstock
TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:
Lee Daniels"The United States vs. Billie Holiday" (Paramount Pictures)
Kornél Mundruczó†"Pieces of a Woman" (Netflix)
Sofia Coppola"On the Rocks" (A24/Apple TV Plus)
Liesl Tommy"Respect" (United Artists Releasing)
Francis Lee"Ammonite" (Neon)
Anthony Russo & Joe Russo"Cherry" (Apple TV Plus)
Christopher Nolan"Tenet" (Warner Bros.)
Ramin Bahrani†"The White Tiger" (Netflix)
Emerald Fennell†"Promising Young Woman" (Focus Features)
Azazel Jacobs"French Exit" (Sony Pictures Classics)
Photo courtesy of Julia Hart
ALSO IN CONTENTION:
Niki Caro"Mulan" (Disney Plus)
Pete Docter & Kemp Powers"Soul" (Pixar)
Patty Jenkins†"Wonder Woman 1984" (Warner Bros.)
Charlie Kaufman"I'm Thinking of Ending Things" (Netflix)
Darius Marder"Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)
Eliza Hittman"Never Rarely Sometimes Always" (Focus Features)
Julia Hart†"I'm Your Woman" (Amazon Studios)
Armando Iannucci"The Personal History of David Copperfield" (Searchlight Pictures)
Channing Godfrey Peoples"Miss Juneteenth" (Vertical Entertainment)
Phyllida Lloyd†"Herself" (Amazon Studios)
Photo credit: Daniel Bergeron
MORE AWARDS CONTENDERS:
George Clooney†"The Midnight Sky" (Netflix)
Kelly Reichardt"First Cow" (A24)
Kitty Green"The Assistant" (Bleecker Street)
Ron Howard†"Hillbilly Elegy" (Netflix)
Rod Lurie"The Outpost" (Screen Media Films)
Jonathan Butterell"Everybody's Talking About Jamie" (20th Century Studios)
Max Barbakow"Palm Springs" (Hulu/Neon)
Ryan Murphy"The Prom" (Netflix)
Judd Apatow"The King of Staten Island" (Universal Pictures)
Chad Hartigan"Little Fish" (IFC Films)
UNRANKED AWARDS CONTENDERS:
Radha Blank,“The Forty-Year-Old-Version” (Netflix)Scott Cooper,“Antlers” (Searchlight Pictures)Michael Angelo Covino,“The Climb” (Sony Pictures Classics)Autumn de Wilde,“Emma.” (Focus Features)Sean Durkin,“The Nest” (IFC Films)Clea DuVall,“Happiest Season” (Sony Pictures)Heidi Ewing,“I Carry You With Me” (Sony Pictures Classics)Coky Giedroyc,“How to Build a Girl” (IFC Films)Miranda July,“Kajillionaire” (Focus Features)†Thomas Kail,“Hamilton” (Disney Plus)†Glen Keane,“Over the Moon” (Netflix)Pietro Marcello,“Martin Eden” (Kino Lorber)Tara Miele,“Wander Darkly” (Lionsgate)Gavin O'Connor,“The Way Back” (Warner Bros.)Gina Prince-Bythewood,“The Old Guard” (Netflix)Gabriel Range,“Stardust” (IFC Films)Marjane Satrapi,“Radioactive” (Amazon Studios)Dan Scanlon,“Onward” (Pixar)Aaron Schneider,“Greyhound” (Apple TV Plus)Paul Schrader,“The Card Counter” (Focus Features)†Steven Soderbergh,“Let Them All Talk” (HBO Max)†Ricky Straub,“Concrete Cowboy” (No U.S. Distribution)†Julie Taymor,“The Glorias” (Roadside Attractions)Leigh Whannell,“The Invisible Man” (Universal Pictures)Benh Zeitlin,“Wendy” (Searchlight Pictures)
† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The best director category has solidified cinema’s most prolific filmmakers. John Ford is the most awarded director in history with four Oscars while Frank Capra and William Wyler garnered three each. Wyler is the most nominated director in Academy history with 12 while Martin Scorsese and Billy Wilder currently sits behind him with 9 and 8 mentions respectively. The late Clarence Brown is the most nominated filmmaker to not win an Academy Award with six (his last was for 1947’s “The Yearling”).