Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.
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2021 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
UPDATED: May 13, 2021
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: It’s a new year for the men of comedy as only Anthony Anderson (ABC’s “Black-ish”) and Michael Douglas (Netflix’s “The Kominsky Method”) are returning from the nominees last year. Ted Danson, who was nominated for the final season for “The Good Place” is back with another NBC vehicle, “Mr. Mayor,” which would be a safe bet for recognition considering he’s the “Meryl Streep” of the category with 14 in this place alone (18 overall).
In these early days of campaigning, Jason Sudeikis is clearly the frontrunner for his brilliance in Apple TV Plus’ “Ted Lasso.” With wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG, if he wins, it’ll be the first clean sweep for a lead actor (comedy series) since the 2015 season for Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent” season one).
There could be a groundswell for a few farewell shows, resulting in either surprise nods or overdue recognition. Most prominent is two-time SAG winner William H. Macy as Frank Gallagher for Showtime’s flagship series “Shameless.” He’s yet to win with four previous nominations for his work, and perhaps a Jon Hamm-like send-off could be in his future.
Speaking of “Mad Men,” perhaps the former guest actor in a drama series nominee Ben Feldman can find recognition for the farewell season of NBC’s “Superstore,” which many discovered during the pandemic.
There’s also the one-two punch of Ralph Macchio and Academy Award nominee William Zabka (did anyone know he has an Oscar nom for best live action short, for the film “Most” in 2004?), who captured the zeitgeist for the fourth season of “Cobra Kai” and with a concentrated effort from Netflix, the film could perform very well, even resulting in one or both to be recognized.
Kenan Thompson is having quite a year and could be the frontrunner for supporting actor in a comedy series for “Saturday Night Live,” he also could be headed for a double-acting nomination for his hit show “Kenan,” which got picked up for another season.
Also, playing the “how they not recognized yet” cards will be (possible future presidential candidate) Dwayne Johnson for “Young Rock” and Ed Helms (criminally overlooked for “The Office”) for his Peacock show “Rutherford Falls.” Anything can happen in this second year of weird campaigning.
The eligibility period ends on May 31 before nomination-round voting begins on June 17, concluding June 28. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 13, 2021.
Courtesy of Apple TV Plus
AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
Jason Sudeikis"Ted Lasso" (Apple TV Plus)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Ted Lasso
–CREATORS: Bill Lawrence, Jason Sudeikis, Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly
SYNOPSIS: Follows US American Football coach Ted Lasso heading to the UK to manage a struggling London football team in the top flight of English football.
STARRING: Jason Sudeikis, Hannah Waddingham, Jeremy Swift, Phil Dunster, Brett Goldstein, Brendan Hunt, Nick Mohammed, Juno Temple
William H. Macy"Shameless" (Showtime)
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EMMY HISTORY: 14 nominsions, 2 wins (lead actor in a miniseries or a movie and tv movie for "The Wool Cap" in 2005)ROLE: Frank Gallagher / Jerry Gallagher
–CREATORS: Paul Abbott, John WellsSYNOPSIS: A scrappy, feisty, fiercely loyal Chicago family makes no apologies.STARRING: William H. Macy, Jeremy Allen White, Ethan Cutkosky, Shanola Hampton, Steve Howey, Emma Kenney, Cameron Monaghan, Noel Fisher, Christian Isaiah, Kate Miner
Michael Douglas"The Kominsky Method" (Netflix)
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EMMY HISTORY: Eight nominations, one win (lead actor in a miniseries or a movie for "Behind the Candelabra" in 2013)ROLE: Sandy Kominsky
–CREATOR: Chuck LorreSYNOPSIS: An aging actor, who long ago enjoyed a brush with fame, makes his living as an acting coach.STARRING: Michael Douglas, Lisa Edelstein, Jane Seymour, Kathleen Turner
Ted Danson"Mr. Mayor" (NBC)
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EMMY HISTORY: 18 nominations, two wins (lead actor in a comedy series for "Cheers" in 1990 and 1993)ROLE: Neil Bremer
–CREATORS: Robert Carlock, Tina Fey
SYNOPSIS: A wealthy businessman becomes the mayor of Los Angeles.
STARRING: Ted Danson, Holly Hunter, Vella Lovell, Mike Cabellon, Kyla Kenedy, Bobby Moynihan
Ralph Macchio"Cobra Kai" (Netflix)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Daniel LaRusso
–CREATOR: Josh Heald, Jon Hurwitz, Hayden Schlossberg
SYNOPSIS: Decades after their 1984 All Valley Karate Tournament bout, a middle-aged Daniel LaRusso and Johnny Lawrence find themselves martial-arts rivals again.
STARRING: Ralph Macchio, William Zabka, Courtney Henggeler, Xolo Maridueña, Tanner Buchanan, Mary Mouser, Jacob Bertrand, Gianni DeCenzo, Martin Kove, Vanessa Rubio, Peyton List
Kenan Thompson"Kenan" (NBC)
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EMMY HISTORY: Four nominations, one win (original music and lyrics for the song "Come Back, Barack" on "Saturday Night Live" in 2018)ROLE: Kenan Williams
–CREATOR: David Caspe, Jackie Clarke
SYNOPSIS: A recently-widowed dad tries to raise his kids with his persistent father-in-law.
STARRING: Kenan Thompson, Don Johnson, Chris Redd, Kimrie Lewis, Dani Lane, Dannah Lane
AUGUST/BERLIN GROSS, ANTHONY ANDERSON
ABC/Ron Tom
NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:
Anthony Anderson"Black-ish" (ABC)
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EMMY HISTORY: Nine nominationsROLE: Andre 'Dre' Johnson
–CREATOR: Kenya BarrisSYNOPSIS: A family man struggles to gain a sense of cultural identity while raising his kids in a predominantly white, upper-middle-class neighborhood.STARRING: Anthony Anderson, Tracee Ellis Ross, Yara Shahidi, Marcus Scribner, Miles Brown, Marsai Martin, Laurence Fishburne, Jeff Meacham, Jenifer Lewis, Peter Mackenzie, Deon Cole, Katlyn Nichol
Ed Helms"Rutherford Falls" (Peacock)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Nathan Rutherford
–CREATOR: Ed Helms, Sierra Teller Ornelas, Michael Schur
SYNOPSIS: A small town in the Northeast is turned upside down when local legend and town namesake, Nathan Rutherford (Ed Helms) fights the moving of a historical statue.
STARRING: Ed Helms, Michael Greyeyes, Jana Schmieding, Jesse Leigh, Dustin Milligan
Dwayne Johnson"Young Rock" (NBC)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Dwayne Johnson
–CREATOR: Dwayne Johnson
SYNOPSIS: A look at the formative years of superstar Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson as he grows up through life.
STARRING: Dwayne Johnson, Joseph Lee Anderson, Stacey Leilua, Ana Tuisila, Adrian Groulx, Bradley Constant, Uli Latukefu
William Zabka"Cobra Kai" (Netflix)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Johnny Lawrence
–CREATOR: Josh Heald, Jon Hurwitz, Hayden Schlossberg
SYNOPSIS: Decades after their 1984 All Valley Karate Tournament bout, a middle-aged Daniel LaRusso and Johnny Lawrence find themselves martial-arts rivals again.
STARRING: Ralph Macchio, William Zabka, Courtney Henggeler, Xolo Maridueña, Tanner Buchanan, Mary Mouser, Jacob Bertrand, Gianni DeCenzo, Martin Kove, Vanessa Rubio, Peyton List
TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:
Ben Feldman"Superstore" (NBC)
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EMMY HISTORY: One nomination (guest actor in a drama series for "Mad Men" in 2012)ROLE: Jonah
–CREATORS: Justin SpitzerSYNOPSIS: A look at the lives of employees at a big box store.STARRING: America Ferrera, Ben Feldman, Lauren Ash, Colton Dunn, Nico Santos, Nichole Sakura, Mark McKinney, Kaliko Kauahi
Billy Magnussen"Made for Love" (HBO Max)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Byron Gogol
–CREATORS: Alissa Nutting & Dean Bakopoulos and Patrick Somerville and Christina Lee
SYNOPSIS: A young woman, on the run after 10 years in a suffocating marriage to a tech billionaire, suddenly realizes that her husband has implanted a revolutionary monitoring device in her brain that allows him to track her every move.
STARRING: Cristin Milioti, Billy Magnussen, Dan Bakkedahl, Noma Dumezweni, Ray Romano, Augusto Aguilera
Martin Freeman"Breeders" (FX)
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EMMY HISTORY: Three nominations, one win (supporting actor in a miniseries or a movie for "Sherlock" in 2014)ROLE: Paul Worsley
–CREATOR: Martin Freeman, Chris Addison, Simon Blackwell
SYNOPSIS: A comedic look at the trials and tribulations of parenthood.
STARRING: Martin Freeman, Daisy Haggard
Rob McElhenney"Mythic Quest: Raven's Banquet" (Apple TV Plus)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Ian
–CREATOR: Megan Ganz, Rob McElhenney, Charlie Day
SYNOPSIS: The owner of a successful video game design company and his troubled staff struggle to keep their hit game 'Mythic Quest' on top.
STARRING: Rob McElhenney, Ashly Burch, Jessie Ennis, Imani Hakim, David Hornsby, Charlotte Nicdao, Danny Pudi, F. Murray Abraham
Jamie Foxx"Dad Stop Embarrassing Me!" (Netflix)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Brian Dixon
–CREATOR: Jamie Foxx, Jim Patterson
SYNOPSIS: A single dad and cosmetics brand owner figures out fatherhood on the fly when his strong-minded teen daughter moves in with him.
STARRING: Jamie Foxx, David Alan Grier, Kyla-Drew, Porscha Coleman, Jonathan Kite, Heather Hemmens
John Goodman"The Conners" (ABC)
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EMMY HISTORY: 11 nominations, one win (guest actor in a drama series for "Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip" in 2007)ROLE: Dan Conner
–CREATOR: Matt Williams
SYNOPSIS: Follow-up to the comedy series "Roseanne," centering on the family members of the matriarch after her sudden death.
STARRING: John Goodman, Laurie Metcalf, Sara Gilbert, Lecy Goranson, Michael Fishman, Emma Kenney, Ames McNamara, Jayden Rey, Maya Lynne Robinson, Jay R. Ferguson
Topher Grace"Home Economics" (ABC)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Tom
–CREATOR: John Aboud, Michael Colton
SYNOPSIS: Three grown-up siblings find themselves living at vastly different levels of financial security from one another.
STARRING: Topher Grace, Caitlin McGee, Jimmy Tatro, Karla Souza, Sasheer Zamata, Shiloh Bearman, Jordyn Starr Curet, JeCobi Swain, Chloe Jo Rountree
Lamorne Morris"Woke" (Hulu)
Hulu
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Keef
–CREATOR: Keith Knight, Marshall Todd
SYNOPSIS: Keef is an African-American cartoonist on the verge of mainstream success when an unexpected incident changes his life.
STARRING: Lamorne Morris, Blake Anderson, T. Murph, Rose McIver, Sasheer Zamata
Alan Tydyk"Resident Alien" (Syfy)
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EMMY HISTORY: One nominationROLE: Dr. Harry Vanderspeigle
–CREATOR: Chris Sheridan
SYNOPSIS: A crash-landed alien named Harry who takes on the identity of a small-town Colorado doctor and slowly begins to wrestle with the moral dilemma of his secret mission on Earth.
STARRING: Alan Tudyk, Sara Tomko, Corey Reynolds, Alice Wetterlund, Levi Fiehler, Judah Prehn
Ben Platt"The Politician" (Netflix)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Payton Hobart
–CREATOR: Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, Ian Brennan
SYNOPSIS: Payton Hobart, a student from Santa Barbara, has known since age seven that he's going to be President of the United States. But first he'll have to navigate the most treacherous political landscape of all: Saint Sebastian High School.
STARRING: Ben Platt, Zoey Deutch, Lucy Boynton, Bob Balaban, David Corenswet, Julia Schlaepfer, Laura Dreyfuss, Theo Germaine, Rahne Jones, Benjamin Barrett, Jessica Lange, Gwyneth Paltrow, Judith Light, Bette Midler
Mr. Iglesias Season 1
Lara Solanki/Netflix
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS (UNRANKED):
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Lead Actor in a Comedy Series)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television’s most prestigious artistic award. There are many records held for both wins and nominations in the near eight decades.
For wins: Four actors have won the most prizes in this category, with four in all of Emmy history – Michael J. Fox, Kelsey Grammer, Carroll O’Connor and Jim Parsons. Fox and O’Connor have won three consecutive years. Except for Fox, Grammer (“Frasier”), O’Connor (“All in the Family”) and Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”) won for the same television series. Fox won three for “Family Ties” and the other for “Spin City.” Four men have three times – Don Adams, John Lithgow, Tony Shalhoub and Dick Van Dyke.
For nominations: Ted Danson has the most nominations ever in this category with 14 (winning twice for “Cheers”). Alan Alda and Kelsey Grammer are next in line with 11, while Michael J. Fox, Carroll O’Connor and Tony Shalhoub have eight each.
John Goodman, Matt LeBlanc and Hal Linden have the most nominations without ever winning for lead actor in a comedy series. Goodman (“Roseanne”) and Linden (“Barney Miller”) were all nominated for the same series. LeBlanc’s nods are split between “Friends” (3) and “Episodes” (4).
“Cheers” and “M*A*S*H” are the leading series with nominations in this category, with 11 with “Frasier” and “The Odd Couple” (1970-1975) nabbing 10. NBC has won this category the most for any network with 26, while CBS and ABC have 19 and 11 wins. Amazon Prime Video is the first and only streaming platform to win this category for Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”) in two consecutive years.
2021 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions
About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, is given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards recognize excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements) and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.
- The 73rd Emmy Awards are scheduled to air on Sunday, Sept. 19 at 8:00 pm est on CBS and on-demand on sister streamer Paramount Plus.