Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.
To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE EMMYS COLLECTIVEVisit each individual category, according to the awards show from THE EMMYS HUBLink to film awards hub THE OSCARS HUB
DRAFT>>>PRE-SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON
2021 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
UPDATED: May 13, 2021
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: This race is always fluid, but we could be headed for some history from the TV Academy if the current buzz stands leading into voting. A record four Black men could be nominated in this category with former Emmy winners Sterling K. Brown (“This Is Us”) and Billy Porter (“Pose”), alongside newcomers Jonathan Majors (“Lovecraft Country”) and Regé-Jean Page (“Bridgerton”). The current record is two, which Brown and Jeffrey Wright (“Westworld”) accomplished in 2018 and Brown and Porter for the past two years. When they won, they were just the fourth and fifth Black actors ever to achieve this (over seven individual nominations with only Bill Cosby ever winning more than once). The list of contenders goes beyond the predicted lineup, including Anthony Mackie (“The Falcon and the Winter Soldier”), Damon Idris (“Snowfall”), Nicholas Pinnock (“For Life”) and Forest Whitaker (“Godfather of Harlem”), although more than likely longshots at the current moment.
There aren’t only Black performers in contention as Pedro Pascal is heavily in the conversation for Disney Plus’ “The Mandalorian.” Jimmy Smits is the only Latino to be nominated in this category for “NYPD Blue” from 1996 to 1999, failing to win each time. Pascal will be the backing of Disney, and he might be able to sneak into a lineup with the right campaign strategy.
Beyond representation, there are the talents of familiar names in the Emmy circle. The previous winner Matthew Rhys (FX’s “The Americans”), could find space for HBO’s “Perry Mason” alongside former nominees Joseph Fiennes (“The Handmaid’s Tale”) and Justin Theroux (“The Mosquito Coast”).
All this speculating could prove to be a moot point by the end of phase one as Josh O’Connor (“The Crown”) is walking in with wins from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice (he lost SAG to Jason Bateman for “Ozark” who is not in contention this year). We still have a long way to go.
The eligibility period ends on May 31 before nomination-round voting begins on June 17, concluding June 28. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 13, 2021.
LIAM DANIEL/NETFLIX © 2020
AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
Josh O'Connor"The Crown" (Netflix)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Prince Charles
–CREATOR: Peter Morgan
SYNOPSIS: Follows the political rivalries and romance of Queen Elizabeth II's reign and the events that shaped the second half of the twentieth century.
STARRING: Olivia Colman, Tobias Menzies, Helena Bonham Carter, Gillian Anderson, Josh O'Connor, Emma Corrin, Marion Bailey, Erin Doherty, Stephen Boxer, Emerald Fennell
Billy Porter"Pose" (FX)
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EMMY HISTORY: Two nominations, one win (lead actor in a drama series for "Pose" in 2019)ROLE: Pray Tell
–CREATORS: Steven Canals, Brad Falchuk, Ryan MurphySYNOPSIS: In the New York of the late 80s and early 90s, this is a story of ball culture and the gay and trans community, the raging AIDS crisis and capitalism.STARRING: Billy Porter, Evan Peters, Kate Mara, James Van Der Beek, Mj Rodriguez, Dominique Jackson, Indya Moore, Ryan Jamaal Swain, Charlayne Woodard, Hailie Sahar, Angelica Ross, Dyllón Burnside, Angel Bismark Curiel, Sandra Bernhard, Jason A. Rodriguez
Matthew Rhys"Perry Mason" (HBO)
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EMMY HISTORY: Four nominations, one win (lead actor in a drama series for "The Americans" in 2018)ROLE: Perry Mason
–CREATOR: Rolin Jones, Ron Fitzgerald
SYNOPSIS: In booming 1932 Los Angeles, a down-and-out defense attorney takes on the case of a lifetime.
STARRING: Matthew Rhys, Juliet Rylance, Chris Chalk, Shea Whigham, Tatiana Maslany, John Lithgow
Sterling K. Brown"This Is Us" (Netflix)
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EMMY HISTORY: Seven nominations, two wins (supporting actor in a limited series or a movie for "American Crime Story" in 2016 and lead actor in a drama series for "This Is Us" in 2017)ROLE: Randall Pearson
–CREATOR: Dan Fogelman
SYNOPSIS: A heartwarming and emotional story about a unique set of triplets, their struggles and their wonderful parents.
STARRING: Milo Ventimiglia, Mandy Moore, Sterling K. Brown, Chrissy Metz, Justin Hartley, Susan Kelechi Watson, Chris Sullivan, Jon Huertas, Alexadra Breckenridge, Niles Fitch, Logan Shroyer, Hannah Zeile, Mackenzie Hancsicsak, Parker Bates, Eris Baker, Faithe Herman, Lonnie Chavis, Melanie Liburd, Lyric Ross, Asante Blackk, Griffin Dunne, Caitlin Thompson
Regé-Jean Page"Bridgerton" (Netflix)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Simon Basset
–CREATOR: Chris Van Dusen
SYNOPSIS: Wealth, lust, and betrayal set against the backdrop of Regency-era England, seen through the eyes of the powerful Bridgerton family.
STARRING: Adjoa Andoh, Lorraine Ashbourne, Jonathan Bailey, Ruby Barker, Sabrina Bartlett, Harriet Cains, Bessie Carter, Nicola Coughlan, Phoebe Dynevor, Ruth Gemmell, Florence Hunt, Claudia Jessie, Ben Miller, Luke Newton, Regé-Jean Page, Golda Rosheuvel, Luke Thompson, Will Tilston, Polly Walker, Julie Andrews
Jonathan Majors"Lovecraft Country" (HBO)
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EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Atticus Freeman
–CREATOR: Misha Green
SYNOPSIS: A young African-American travels across the U.S. in the 1950s in search of his missing father.
STARRING: Jonathan Majors, Jurnee Smollett, Aunjanue Ellis, Courtney B. Vance, Wunmi Mosaku, Abbey Lee, Jamie Chung, Jada Harris, Michael K. Williams
Falcon/Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie) in Marvel Studios’ THE FALCON AND THE WINTER SOLDIER exclusively on Disney+. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. ©Marvel Studios 2021. All Rights Reserved.
Courtesy of Marvel Studios
NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:
Justin Theroux"The Mosquito Coast" (Apple TV Plus)
–EMMY HISTORY: Two nominations, two wins (outstanding variety special-live in 2019 and 2020)ROLE: Allie Fox
–CREATOR: Neil Cross
SYNOPSIS: An idealist uproots his family and moves them to Latin America.
STARRING: Justin Theroux, Melissa George, Logan Polish, Gabriel Bateman, Kimberly Elise, James LeGros
Pedro Pascal"The Mandalorian" (Disney Plus)
–EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: The Mandalorian
–CREATOR: Jon Favreau
SYNOPSIS: The travels of a lone bounty hunter in the outer reaches of the galaxy, far from the authority of the New Republic.
STARRING: Pedro Pascal, Amy Sedaris, Temuera Morrison, Misty Rosas, Mercedes Varnado, Katee Sachhoff, Giancarlo Esposito, Gina Carano, Omid Abtahi, Ming-Na Wen
Anthony Mackie"The Falcon and the Winter Soldier" (Disney Plus)
–EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Sam Wilson / Falcon
–CREATOR: Malcolm Spellman
SYNOPSIS: Following the events of 'Avengers: Endgame,' Sam Wilson/Falcon and Bucky Barnes/Winter Soldier team up in a global adventure that tests their abilities -- and their patience.
STARRING: Sebastian Stan, Anthony Mackie, Wyatt Russell, Erin Kellyman, Danny Ramirez, Georges St-Pierre, Adepero Oduye, Don Cheadle, Daniel Brühl, Emily VanCamp, Florence Kasumba, Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Joseph Fiennes"The Handmaid's Tale" (Hulu)
–EMMY HISTORY: One nomination (supporting actor in a drama series for "The Handmaid's Tale" in 2018)ROLE: Fred Waterford
–CREATOR: Bruce Miller
SYNOPSIS: Set in a dystopian future, a woman is forced to live as a concubine under a fundamentalist theocratic dictatorship.
STARRING: Elisabeth Moss, Yvonne Strahovski, Joseph Fiennes, Ann Dowd, Madeline Brewer, Amanda Brugel, Max Minghella, O-T Fagbenie, Samira Wiley, Nina Kiri, Alexis Bledel, Bahia Watson, Bradley Whitford
Courtesy of NBC
TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:
Sebastian Stan"The Falcon and the Winter Soldier" (Disney Plus)
–EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Bucky Barnes / Winter Soldier
–CREATOR: Malcolm Spellman
SYNOPSIS: Following the events of 'Avengers: Endgame,' Sam Wilson/Falcon and Bucky Barnes/Winter Soldier team up in a global adventure that tests their abilities -- and their patience.
STARRING: Sebastian Stan, Anthony Mackie, Wyatt Russell, Erin Kellyman, Danny Ramirez, Georges St-Pierre, Adepero Oduye, Don Cheadle, Daniel Brühl, Emily VanCamp, Florence Kasumba, Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Jack Dylan Grazer"We Are Who We Are" (HBO)
–EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Fraser Wilson
–CREATORS: Sean Conway, Paolo Giordano, Luca Guadagnino, Francesca Manieri
SYNOPSIS: Two American teenagers come of age while living on an American military base in Italy.
STARRING: Chloë Sevigny, Jack Dylan Grazer, Alice Braga, Jordan Kristine Seamón, Spence Moore II, Scott Mescudi, Faith Alabi, Francesca Scorsese, Ben Taylor, Corey Knight, Tom Mercier
Damson Idris"Snowfall" (FX)
–EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Franklin Saint
–CREATOR: John Singleton, Eric Amadio, Dave Andron
SYNOPSIS: A look at the early days of the crack cocaine epidemic in Los Angeles during the beginning of the 1980s.
STARRING: Damson Idris, Carter Hudson, Emily Rios, Sergio Peris-Mencheta, Michael Hyatt, Amin Joseph, Angela Lewis, Juan Javier Cardenas, Isaiah John, Filipe Valle Costa, Alon Aboutboul, Malcolm Mays, Marcus Henderson, Kevin Carroll
Antony Starr"The Boys" (Amazon Prime Video)
–EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: John / Homelander
–CREATOR: Eric Kripke
SYNOPSIS: A group of vigilantes set out to take down corrupt superheroes who abuse their superpowers.
STARRING: Karl Urban, Jack Quaid, Antony Starr, Erin Moriarty, Dominique McElligott, Jessie T. Usher, Laz Alonso, Chace Crawford, Tomer Capon, Karen Fukuhara, Nathan Mitchell, Elisabeth Shue, Colby Minifie, Aya Cash
Christopher Meloni"Law & Order: Organized Crime" (CBS)
–EMMY HISTORY: One nomination (lead actor in a drama series for "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit" in 2006)ROLE: Elliot Stabler
–CREATOR: Dick Wolf, Ilene Chaiken, Matt Olmstead
SYNOPSIS: Elliot Stabler returns to the NYPD to battle organized crime after a devastating personal loss.
STARRING: Christopher Meloni, Danielle Moné Truitt, Tamara Taylor, Ainsley Seiger, Dylan McDermott
Kevin Bacon"City on a Hill" (Netflix)
–EMMY HISTORY: One nomination (lead actor in a mini-series or a movie for "Taking Chance" in 2009)ROLE: Jackie Rohr
–CREATOR: Chuck MacLean
SYNOPSIS: In early 1990s Boston, ADA Decourcy Ward forms an unlikely alliance with a corrupt venerated FBI veteran, Jackie Rohr. Together, they take on a case that changes the city's entire criminal justice system.
STARRING: Kevin Bacon, Aldis Hodge, Jonathan Tucker, Mark O'Brien, Lauren E. Banks, Amanda Clayton, Jere Shea, Kevin Chapman, Jill Hennessy
Nicholas Pinnock"For Life" (Netflix)
–EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Aaron Wallace
–CREATOR: Hank Steinberg
SYNOPSIS: A prisoner becomes a lawyer and fights to overturn his life sentence for a crime he didn't commit.
STARRING: Nicholas Pinnock, Indira Varma, Joy Bryant, Mary Stuart Masterson, Dorian Crossmond Missick, Tyla Harris, Glenn Fleshler, Boris McGiver, Timothy Busfield, John Doman
Freddie Highmore"The Good Doctor" (ABC)
–EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: Dr. Shaun Murphy
–CREATOR: David Shore
SYNOPSIS: Shaun Murphy, a young surgeon with autism and Savant syndrome, is recruited into the surgical unit of a prestigious hospital.
STARRING: Freddie Highmore, Antonia Thomas, Richard Schiff, Hill Harper, Christina Chang, Paige Spara, Will Yun Lee, Fiona Gubelmann
Forest Whitaker"Godfather of Harlem" (EPIX)
–EMMY HISTORY: Three nominations, one win (outstanding made for television movie for "Door to Door" in 2003)ROLE: Ellsworth 'Bumpy' Johnson
–CREATOR: Chris Brancato, Paul Eckstein
SYNOPSIS: A gangster named Bumpy Johnson makes his way in Harlem during the 1960s. A TV prequel to the 2007 film, 'American Gangster', which centered on the criminal enterprise of Frank Lucas.
STARRING: Forest Whitaker, Nigel Thatch, Ilfenesh Hadera, Lucy Fry, Antoinette Crowe-Legacy, Vincent D'Onofrio, Erik LaRay Harvey, Giancarlo Esposito
Kevin Costner"Yellowstone" (Paramount Plus)
–EMMY HISTORY: Never nominatedROLE: John Dutton
–CREATOR: Taylor Sheridan, John Linson
SYNOPSIS: A ranching family in Montana faces off against others encroaching on their land..
STARRING: Kevin Costner, Luke Grimes, Kelly Reilly, Wes Bentley, Cole Hauser, Kelsey Asbille, Brecken Merrill, Jefferson White, Gil Birmingham, Ian Bohen
Damian Lewis as Bobby “Axe” Axelrod in BILLIONS (Season 4, Episode 10, “New Year’s Day”). – Photo: Jeff Neumann/SHOWTIME – Photo ID: BILLIONS_410_55.R.jpg
Jeff Neumann/SHOWTIME
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS (UNRANKED):
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Lead Actor in a Drama Series)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television’s most prestigious artistic award. There are many records held for both wins and nominations in the near eight decades.
For wins: Bryan Cranston (AMC’s “Breaking Bad”) and Dennis Franz (ABC’s “NYPD Blue”) hold the record for the most wins in this category with four, with the former winning three consecutively and the latter two. Five actors have won three times – Bill Cosby, Peter Falk, James Gandolfini, James Spader and Robert Young.
For nominations: Four actors have been nominated in this category eight times – Raymond Burr, Peter Falk, Dennis Franz and Jon Hamm. James Garner has the second most nods with seven. Michael C. Hall, Hugh Laurie, Martin Sheen and Kiefer Sutherland have the most nominations at six, without winning (although Sheen has won an Emmy for guest actor in a comedy series for “Murphy Brown” in 1994).
“NYPD Blue” has the leading series to have nominations in this category with 14, followed by “St. Elsewhere” at 10 and “Columbo,” “Law & Order” and “Mad Men” at eight apiece.
2021 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions
About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, is given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards recognize excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements) and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.
- The 73rd Emmy Awards are scheduled to air on Sunday, Sept. 19 at 8:00 pm est on CBS and on-demand on sister streamer Paramount Plus.