Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.
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UPDATED: July 28, 2022
2023 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:
A wide-open category with a few opportunities to reward some veterans such as three-time nominee Woody Harrelson (“Triangle of Sadness”) or one-timer Don Cheadle (“White Noise”).
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Oscars Predictions Hub
More to come.
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub
2022 category winner: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Name | Film | Distributor |
| 1 | Paul Dano | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen. | |||
| 2 | Don Cheadle | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| “White Noise” dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death, and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world. | |||
| 3 | Woody Harrelson | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island. | |||
| 4 | Brendan Gleeson | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them. | |||
| 5 | Ke Huy Quan | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | A24 |
| An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led. | |||
| Next in Line | |||
| 6 | John David Washington | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| Set in the ’30s, it follows three friends who witness a murder, become suspects themselves, and uncover one of the most outrageous plots in American history. | |||
| 7 | Barry Keoghan | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them. | |||
| 8 | Mark Strong | “TÁR” | Focus Features |
| Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra. | |||
| 9 | Brian Tyree Henry | “Causeway” | Apple Original Films |
| A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home. | |||
| 10 | Tobey Maguire | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| Set in Hollywood during the transition from silent films to talkies, focusing on a mixture of historical & fictional characters. | |||
| Other Top-Tier Contenders | |||
| 11 | Seth Rogen | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| 12 | Jeremy Strong | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| 13 | Harry Styles | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Warner Bros |
| 14 | Frankie Faison | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| 15 | Tom Hanks | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| 16 | Harry Melling | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| 17 | Ethan Hawke* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| 18 | Pedro Pascal | “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” | Lionsgate |
| 19 | Andre Braugher | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| 20 | Micheal Ward | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| Also In Contention | |||
| 21 | Zen McGrath* | “The Son” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| 22 | Ciarán Hinds | “The Wonder” | Netflix |
| 23 | Russell Crowe | “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” | Apple Original Films |
| 24 | Ashton Sanders | “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” | Sony Pictures |
| 25 | Ben Aldridge | “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” | Focus Features |
| 26 | David Lynch | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| 27 | John Leguizamo | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 28 | Alessandro Nivola | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| 29 | Ethan Hawke | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| 30 | Daniel Brühl | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Netflix |
| Other Awards Possibilities | |||
| 31 | Luke Macfarlane | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| 32 | Jalyn Hall* | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| 33 | Anthony Hopkins | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| 34 | Nicholas Hoult | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 35 | Stephen Lang | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| 36 | Manuel Garcia-Rulfo | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| 37 | Sean Patrick Thomas | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| 38 | Miles Teller | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| 39 | Winston Duke* | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| 40 | Colin Farrell* | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical) | |||
| — | Adrien Brody | “Blonde” | Netflix |
| — | Adrien Brody | “See How They Run” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Aldis Hodge | “Black Adam” | Warner Bros |
| — | Alessandro Nivola | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Alessandro Nivola | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| — | Alex Sharp | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Ali Suliman | “The Swimmers” | Netflix |
| — | André Benjamin | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| — | Andre Braugher | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| — | André Holland | “Shirley” | Netflix |
| — | Andrés Almeida | “Bardo (or False Chronicle” | Netflix |
| — | Andrew Scott | “Catherine, Called Birdy” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Anthony Hopkins | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| — | Ashton Sanders | “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Barry Keoghan | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Ben Aldridge | “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” | Focus Features |
| — | Ben Whishaw | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Benedict Wong | “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Bill Irwin | “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” | Focus Features |
| — | Bill Murray | “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Bobby Cannavale | “Blonde” | Netflix |
| — | Brad Pitt* | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Brandon Perea | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Brendan Gleeson* | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Brian Tyree Henry | “Causeway” | A24/Apple Original Films |
| — | Chris Pine | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Chris Rock | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Ciarán Hinds | “The Wonder” | Netflix |
| — | Claes Bang | “The Northman” | Focus Features |
| — | Clarke Peters | “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Cliff Curtis | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Colin Farrell | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Colin Farrell | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Colin Farrell* | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Colin Firth* | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Daniel Bruhl | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Netflix |
| — | Dave Bautista | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | David Dawson | “My Policeman” | Amazon Studios |
| — | David F. Sandberg | “Shazam! Fury of the Gods” | Warner Bros. |
| — | David Oyelowo | “See How They Run” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | David Wenham | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Derek Jacobi | “Allelujah” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Diego Calva* | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Djimon Hounsou | “Shazam! Fury of the Gods” | Warner Bros |
| — | Don Cheadle | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| — | Dustin Hoffman | “As They Made Us” | Quiver |
| — | Edward Norton | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Eric Bana | “Blueback” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Ernie Hudson | “Prisoner’s Daughter” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Ethan Hawke | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Ethan Hawke* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Ewan McGregor* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Frankie Faison | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Harry Lloyd | “The Lost King” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Harry Melling | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| — | Harry Styles | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Warner Bros |
| — | Jalyn Hall* | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Jaylin Webb | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| — | Jeffrey Wright | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Jeremy Strong | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| — | Joe Alwyn | “Catherine, Called Birdy” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Joel Edgerton | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | John Boyega | “The Woman King” | Sony Pictures |
| — | John David Washington | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | John Glover | “TÁR” | Focus Features |
| — | John Leguizamo | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | John Patton Ford | “Emily the Criminal” | Roadside Attractions |
| — | Juancho Hernangómez | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| — | Ke Huy Quan | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | A24 |
| — | Kelvin Harrison Jr. | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Lance Reddick | “Shirley” | Netflix |
| — | Leslie Odom Jr. | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Lior Ashkenazi | “Golda” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Lucas Hedges | “Shirley” | Netflix |
| — | Luke Macfarlane | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Malcolm McDowell | “Moving On” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Manuel Garcia-Rulfo | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Mark Rylance | “Bones & All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Mark Rylance | “The Way of the Wind” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Mark Strong | “TÁR” | Focus Features |
| — | Martin Freeman | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Matthias Schoenaerts | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Michael Shannon | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Michael Stuhlbarg | “Bones & All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Micheal Ward* | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Mike Epps | “On the Come Up” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Mike Myers | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Miles Teller | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Nicholas Hoult | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Noah Jupe | “Dreamin’ Wild” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Oh Kwang-rok | “Return to Seoul” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Paul Dano | “Spaceman” | Netflix |
| — | Paul Dano | “Spaceman” | Netflix |
| — | Paul Dano | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Paul Dano | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Pedro Pascal | “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” | Lionsgate |
| — | Peter Lanzani | “Argentina, 1985” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Ralph Fiennes* | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Rami Heuberger | “Golda” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Rami Malek | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Richard Roxburgh | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Robert DeNiro | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Robert DeNiro | “About My Father” | Lionsgate |
| — | Robert Duvall | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| — | Russell Crowe | “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Scott Speedman | “Crimes of the Future” | Neon |
| — | Sean Patrick Thomas | “Till” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Seth Rogen | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Stanley Tucci | “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Stephen Lang | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Steven Yeun | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Taika Waititi | “Thor: Love and Thunder” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Terrence Howard | “Shirley” | Netflix |
| — | Terrence Howard | “Shirley” | Netflix |
| — | Timothy Olyphant | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Tobey Maguire | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Toby Jones | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Tom Burke | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Tom Hanks | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Tom Pelphrey | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Viggo Mortensen* | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Winston Duke* | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Woody Harrelson | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| — | Zen McGrath* | “The Son” | Sony |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
About the Academy Awards (Oscars)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
- The 95th Oscars ceremony at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC
This article was originally published by Variety.com. Read the original article here.