Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Animated Short
Image from “Save Ralph”
Humane Society
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Always difficult to gauge how the reveal of the short film categories will go. In best animated short, the Academy’s announcement has given new and uplifting buzz surrounding “New Moon,” a beautiful collaboration between recent Emmy winner Colman Domingo (guest actor in a drama for “Euphoria”) and his husband Raul Domingo. The couple both serve as writers and producers on the project, while Raul also directs alongside Jérémie Balais and Jeffig Le Bars. Colman is the storyteller of the journey of Jay Jay and his mother Edie as their inner dreams are illuminated by the moon in their West Philadelphia backyard.
Coming off Riz Ahmed winning live action short last year after being nominated for “Sound of Metal” (2020), stars are utilizing the shorter forms of cinema to explore their creativity behind the camera. One of the finest Afro-Latinos in the game, Colman Domingo has kept one foot in the director’s chair throughout his career, whether it’s on TV with AMC’s “Fear the Walking Dead” or most notably in the theater with over a dozen credits for various plays, “New Moon” could offer the bridge to a new level of filmmaking for the artist.
But it’s not all about Domingo from the Oscars shortlist, with The Animation Showcase nabbing four of the 15 spots with “Black Slides,” “The Flying Sailor,” “My Year of Dicks” and “Steakhouse.”
Notable studios and productions are also angling for attention such as Apple with “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” with the voice talents of Idris Elba and Tom Hollander and BlueTongue Films with “Save Ralph” featuring the voices of Oscar-winner Taika Waititi (“Jojo Rabbit”), George Lopez and Ricky Gervais.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
BBC/Bad Robot
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Name | Director(s) | Distributor(s) |
| 1 | “New Moon” | Jérémie Balais, Raul Domingo, Jeffig Le Bars | Edith Productions |
| An imaginative surrealist journey of young Jay Jay and his mother Edie as their inner city dreams are illuminated by the new moon a in a backyard in West Philadelphia. | |||
| 2 | “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” | Peter Baynton | Apple TV+ |
| Follows a boy, a mole, a fox and a horse, as they create an unexpected friendship and travel together in the boy’s search for home. | |||
| 3 | “Save Ralph” | Spencer Susser | Blue-Tongue Films |
| Ralph, a bunny being interviewed for a documentary, goes through his daily routine as a “tester” in a lab. | |||
| 4 | “The Flying Sailor” | Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby | The Animation Showcase |
| Inspired by true events, the highly anticipated new film by Oscar-nominated duo Wendy Tilby and Amanda Forbis is a meditation on a sailor’s unexpected voyage. | |||
| 5 | “My Year of Dicks” | Sara Gunnarsdóttir | The Animation Showcase |
| Pam tries very hard to lose her virginity and always searches for “the one”. She’s not alone, her best friends are with her. | |||
| Next in Line | |||
| 6 | “More Than I Want to Remember” | Amy Bench | MTV Documentary Films |
| One night at her home in southeastern Congo, 14-year-old Mugeni awakes to the sounds of bombs. As her family scatters to the surrounding forests to save themselves, Mugeni finds herself completely alone. From there, she sets out on a remarkable solo journey across the globe, determined to reunite with her lost loved ones and lift up the Banyamulenge people. | |||
| 7 | “It’s Nice in Here” | Robert-Jonathan Koeyers | SND Films |
| A fragmented portrait of a moment seen through the subjective memories of a young Black girl, Imani, and a rookie police officer, David, who both have different recollections of the same fateful moment that will alter their lives forever. | |||
| 8 | “An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It” | Lachlan Pendragon | Griffith Film School |
| A young office worker uncovers the flaws in his stop-motion universe with the help of a mysterious talking ostrich. | |||
| 9 | “Sierra” | Sander Joon | The Criterion Channel |
| A father and his son are losing the race. To win, the boy turns himself into a car tyre. Sierra looks at toxic masculinity through dark irony, while pulling us into the surreal car racing world. | |||
| 10 | “The Debutante” | Elizabeth Hobbs | Animate Projects Limited |
| A spirited young woman persuades a hyena from London Zoo to take her place at a dinner dance being held in her honour. | |||
| Also In Contention | |||
| — | “Black Slide” | Uri Lotan | The Animation Showcase |
| — | “The Garbage Man” | Laura Gonçalves | Bando à Parte |
| — | “Ice Merchants” | João Gonzalez | Curtas Metragens CRL / Agência – Portuguese Short Film Agency |
| — | “Passenger” | Juan Pablo Zaramella | JPZtudio |
| — | “Steakhouse” | Spela Cadez | The Animation Showcase |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: “The Windshield Wiper” (The Animation Showcase) – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sánchez
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Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.