Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Documentary Short
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: It’s an eclectic mixture of short films in the running for the documentary short race.
The New Yorker’s “Nuisance Bear” is among the most acclaimed, making multiple stops at festivals and picking up various trophies.
Frank Chi’s “38 at the Garden,” looking at the cultural impact of Jeremy Lin during his season on the New York Knicks, is a favorite in the race, especially with Oscar-winner Trayvon Free (“Two Distant Strangers”) onboard as one of the producers.
Heartfelt tales such as “Holding Moses” are heavily featured, focusing on a woman dealing with grief and trying to connect with her disabled son. Jay Rosenblatt’s “How Do You Measure a Year,” who filmed himself asking his daughter from the age of two to 18, asking her daughter – what do you dream about? what scares you? what do you think about our relationship? The movie will surely strike a chord if you’re a family person.
You can never count out Netflix with a pair of movies in the discussion — Kartiki Gonsalves’ “The Elephant Whisperers” and Anne Alvergue and Debra McClutchy’s “The Marsha Mitchell Effect.”
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
An image from “Holding Moses”
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Name | Director(s) | Distributor(s) |
| 1 | “Holding Moses” | Rivkah Beth Medow, Jen Rainin (co-director) | Frankly Speaking Films |
| A Broadway performer becomes a mother, braiding rhythm and grief and time and joy on her path to connect with her profoundly disabled son. | |||
| 2 | “Nuisance Bear” | Gabriela Osio Vanden, Jack Weisman | The New Yorker |
| Churchill, Manitoba, is famous as an international destination for photographing polar bears. We’ve seen the majestic images and classic wildlife TV programs – but what does the bear see of us? ‘Nuisance Bear’ shifts the perspective to reveal the obstacle course of tourist paparazzi and wildlife officers that bears navigate during their annual migration. | |||
| 3 | “38 at the Garden” | Frank Chi | HBO Max |
| Follows the cultural impact of NBA trailblazer Jeremy Lin during his 2011-12 season with the New York Knicks and the cultural phenomenon known as “Linsanity”. | |||
| 4 | “As Far as They Can Run” | Tanaz Eshaghian | MTV Documentary Films |
| Three young adults join a running program for disabled youth in Pakistan, hoping to shift perspectives in their rural community. | |||
| 5 | “How Do You Measure a Year? | Jay Rosenblatt | Jay Rosenblatt Films |
| From the time she was two-years-old and until she turned 18, they had a ritual: Dad asked (and filmed), and Ella answered. What do you dream about? What scares you? What do you think about our relationship? This is a little story about growing up and the love between father and daughter. | |||
| Next in Line | |||
| 6 | “Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison” | Cinque Northern | Aubin Pictures |
| Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison gives us a window into playwright Liza Jessie Peterson’s performance in 2020 of her acclaimed play The Peculiar Patriot performed at Angola, the Louisiana State Penitentiary, said to be America’s largest prison. | |||
| 7 | “The Marsha Mitchell Effect” | Anne Alvergue, Debra McClutchy (co-director) | Netflix |
| The Cabinet wife who spoke out during Watergate and the Nixon administration’s campaign to gaslight her into silence. | |||
| 8 | “The Elephant Whisperers” | Kartiki Gonsalves | Netflix |
| The Elephant Whisperers’ follows an indigenous couple as they fall in love with Raghu, an orphaned elephant given into their care, and tirelessly work to ensure his survival. The film highlights the beauty of the wild spaces in South India and the people and animals who share this space | |||
| 9 | “Anastasia” | Sarah McCarthy | MBK Productions |
| A woman whose resistance to the Putin regime comes at a terrible cost. | |||
| 10 | “American Justice on Trial: People v. Newton” | Herb Ferrette, Andrew Abrahams | Open Eye Pictures |
| The film tells the forgotten story of the death penalty case that put racism on trial in a U.S. courtroom in the fall of 1968. | |||
| Also In Contention | |||
| — | “The Flagmakers” | Sharon Liese, Cynthia Wade | National Geographic Documentary Films |
| — | “Happiness Is £4 Million” | Weixi Chen, Kai Wei | TripodMedia |
| — | “Haulout” | Maxim Arbugaev, Evgenia Arbugaeva | Albireo Films |
| — | “Shut Up and Paint” | Titus Kaphar, Alex Mallis | DCTV |
| — | “Stranger at the Gate” | Joshua Seftel | The New Yorker |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: “The Queen of Basketball” (The New York Times) – Ben Proudfoot
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Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.