Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Live Action Short
Image from “Warsha”
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The big takeaway from the Oscars shortlist announcement was an entire lineup that doesn’t feature any U.S. titles. All but Tom Berkeley and Ross White’s “An Irish Goodbye” are non-English, which could be an advantage moving toward Oscar nom voting which begins on Jan. 12.
The non-English title increase shouldn’t be interpreted as a “bad thing” since we consistently encourage Academy members to seek more non-traditional and international titles. However, this could point to another example of how the increase in international voters has had an incredible effect.
That also could point to the omissions of the two music superstars — Taylor Swift (“All Too Well”) and Kendrick Lamar (“We Cry Together”) — being snubbed from the shortlist.
The most recognizable name in the discussion is four-time Academy Award winner Alfonso Cuarón, who produced Disney’s “Le Pupille” from writer and director Alice Rohrwacher. Making stops at the Cannes, Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals, the movie could have the most buzz to bring it to the finish line.
The Criterion Channel made a significant flex in the shorts categories, notably with Dania Bdeir’s “Warsha,” a story of a Beirut crane operator living out his secret passion.
They’ll be more buzz to consider as people begin to watch them over the holiday break.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
An image from “An Irish Goodbye”
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Name | Director(s) | Distributor(s) |
| 1 | “An Irish Goodbye” | Tom Berkeley, Ross White | Floodlight Pictures |
| In rural Northern Ireland, a pair of estranged brothers reunite following their mother’s untimely death. | |||
| 2 | “Le Pupille” | Alice Rohrwacher | Disney+ |
| Follow the rebellious girls of a Catholic boarding school before Christmas, a time of war and scarcity. | |||
| 3 | “The Red Suitcase” | Cyrus Neshvad | Cynefilms |
| Luxembourg Airport. Late in the evening. A veiled 16-year-old Iranian girl is frightened to take her red suitcase on the automatic carpet. She keeps pushing back the moment to go through the arrival gate and seems more and more terrified. | |||
| 4 | “Warsha” | Dania Bdeir | The Criterion Channel |
| Away from everyone’s eyes, a Beirut crane operator is able to live out his secret passion and find freedom. | |||
| 5 | “Nakam” | Andreas Kessler | Filmakademie Baden-Württemberg |
| Twelve year old violin player Mitka is supposed to execute an attack on several SS officers in the name of a Ukrainian partisan movement. But his attempt will also put his only friend in life danger. | |||
| Next in Line | |||
| 6 | “Ivalu” | Anders Walter | M&M Productions |
| Ivalu is gone. Her little sister is desperate to find her. Her father does not care. The vast Greenlandic nature holds secrets. The search for Ivalu is on. | |||
| 7 | “Sideral” | Carlos Segundo | The Animation Showcase |
| In Natal, on the Brazilian coast, the country is preparing to launch its first manned space rocket into space. A couple lives with children near the space center, she is a cleaner and he is a mechanic, but she dreams of other horizons. | |||
| 8 | “The Right Words” | Adrian Moyse Dullin | Punchline Cinéma |
| When naive and romantic Mahdi is peer-pressured into confessing his love to Jada, a girl who doesn’t know he exists, his declaration becomes a public spectacle. | |||
| 9 | “Almost Home” | Nils Keller | Le Hof Media |
| When they learn of an outbreak of a dangerous virus shortly before their long-awaited return to Earth, a teenager and his mother struggle to decide whether to land or return to space aboard their confined spaceship. | |||
| 10 | “All in Favor” | Santiago Requejo | 2:59 Films |
| What begins as an ordinary meeting of neighbors to vote on the change of elevator, ends up becoming an unexpected debate on the limits of coexistence. | |||
| Also In Contention | |||
| — | “The Lone Wolf” | Filipe Melo | Força de Produção |
| — | “Night Ride” | Eirik Tveiten | Cylinder Production |
| — | “Plastic Killer” | Jose Pozo | Arlong Productions |
| — | “The Treatment” | Álvaro Carmona | Line Up Shorts |
| — | “Tula” | Beatriz Silva | Agencia Audiovisual Freak |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: “The Long Goodbye” (WePresent) – Aniel Karia, Riz Ahmed
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