Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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UPDATED: April 30, 2023
2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Play
Marcel Spears and Billy Eugene Jones in “Fat Ham” on Broadway.
Joan Marcus
Weekly Commentary: It’s been a strong, crowded season for new plays, with five nominees in the category seemingly assured.
Tom Stoppard’s season-long success “Leopoldstadt” will certainly secure a spot (and stands poised to become the frontrunner), while a trio of shows already recognized by the Pulitzer – “Fat Ham,” “Between Riverside and Crazy” and “Cost of Living” – are also jostling for spots. However, both “Riverside” and “Cost of Living” are older plays, and so may have less urgency around them that the two spring openers, “Prima Facie” and “Life of Pi,” that came Stateside after collecting Oliviers across the pond.
Meanwhile, “Summer, 1976” and “Good Night, Oscar” have gotten some love in the pre-Tony round of nominations from organizations like the Outer Critics and the Drama League. Like “The Thanksgiving Play,” these shows have opened in the last couple of weeks and could have some recency bias counting in their favor.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.
Of the other eligible shows, “The Kite Runner,” “The Collaboration” and “Pictures from Home,” which both garnered mixed responses, seem unlikely to draw much support, and “Peter Pan Goes Wrong” is probably a little too goofy for nominators to consider in a competitive race like this one. “A Christmas Carol” seems most likely to draw design noms, and “Ain’t No Mo’,” though admired by many, came and went too quickly to be seen by most voters.
The Tony Awards eligibility cut-off date for the 2022–23 season is April 27, 2023, for all Broadway productions which meet all other eligibility requirements. The 2023 Tony Awards nominations will be announced on May 2, 2023.
The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Summer, 1976” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
- “Cost of Living” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
- “Good Night, Oscar” (Belasco Theatre)
- “The Thanksgiving Play” (Hayes Theater)
All Eligible Shows (Unranked)
Tony Awards Predictions Categories
BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY
About the Tony Awards
The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.