Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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UPDATED: May 1, 2023
2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Book of Musical
Weekly Commentary: The season’s triad of musical frontrunners will lead this category. David Linsday-Abaire will secure a nom for adapting his own play into an intimately heartwarming musical, and Tony winner Matthew López (“The Inheritance”) and Amber Ruffin will get a nod for their take on “Some Like It Hot” that carefully weaves in a nuanced, contemporary perspective on gender identity and race. Robert Horn will also claim a slot for his book for “Shucked,” which is packed with more jokes, zingers, groaners, puns, hoots and hollers than Broadway has seen since – well, since Horn’s Tony-winning book for “Tootsie.”
The fourth spot in the category looks most likely to go to David West Read (“Schitt’s Creek”) for his fun-loving, cheerfully anachronistic script for “& Juliet,” which imagines a Juliet who doesn’t die at the end of Shakespeare’s play. Also in the mix, if less likely to nab noms, are David Thompson and Sharon Washington’s new take on the Scorsese film “New York, New York” and Cameron Crowe’s adaptation of his own well-liked movie, “Almost Famous.”
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.
The Tony Awards eligibility cutoff date for the 2022–23 season is April 27, 2023, for all Broadway productions which meet all other eligibility requirements. The 2023 Tony Awards nominations will be announced on May 2, 2023.
The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and be produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre) — David Lindsay-Abaire
- “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre) — Matthew López and Amber Ruffin
- “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre) — Robert Horn
- “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre) — David West Read
Next in Line
- “New York, New York” (St. James Theatre) — David Thompson and Sharon Washington
- “Almost Famous” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre) — Cameron Crowe
All Eligible Shows (Unranked)
Tony Awards Predictions Categories
BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY
About the Tony Awards
The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.