Yes, SAG-AFTRA talks with the AMPTP are ongoing, but there’s still an awards season to track.
Honoring the best achievements in film and television, the guild’s highest honor has become a critical bellwether during the awards season. The union has made it clear submitting for awards consideration is not considered a “promotion” under the current strike order.
Even though the SAG nominating committee was formed before the strike began in July, SAG-AFTRA has paused all FYC and marketing materials, even if the films have an interim agreement. All e-blasts and screeners for consideration will remain on pause until further notice.
That won’t prohibit some of the year’s biggest contenders, such as Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” or Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” from dominating. We fully expect to see multiple noms coming for those movies. There’s always room for surprise, which you can see via the predictions below.
One is a possible mention of Florence Pugh for her turn as a Community Party/love interest. While we’re not projecting her replacing her co-star Emily Blunt. On the contrary, a mention of her would mimic double-dips seen at the SAG Awards previously, such as Nicole Kidman for “Bombshell” (2019). It wouldn’t propel her into the supporting actress race, but that category is currently wide open and could produce a few more surprises.
Your Oscar predictions, along with the other televised ceremonies — Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA — have to tell a story. Do we have another Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”) or Maria Bello (“The Cooler”) contender who lands everything but misses out on Oscar by the end? Is there a smaller film that makes noise and has everyone scratching their heads (i.e., Sarah Silverman in “I Smile Back” or “Captain Fantastic” in cast ensemble)? Either way, the race is always fluid, and this page will be updated weekly, along with the others.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 26: (L-R) Jamie Lee Curtis, Jenny Slate, Stephanie Hsu, James Hong, Ke Huy Quan, Andy Le, Brian Le and Harry Shum Jr. accept the Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture award for “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
The SAG Awards have existed since 1995, quickly establishing itself where an actor or actress would be recognized by their peers due to its large crossover with AMPAS voters. Only three actors have won an acting Oscar in that timeframe without receiving a SAG nom: Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock” (2000), Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained” (2012) and Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk” (2018). When it comes to Oscar best picture winners, you can look to “Braveheart” (1995), “The Shape of Water” (2017), “Green Book” (2018) and “Nomadland” (2020) as the four movies to do so without receiving a cast ensemble mention.
The 30th annual Screen Actors Guild Awards ceremony will stream live globally on Netflix for the first time this year as part of their multi-year deal.
The television categories will be added in the coming weeks.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
(Updated Nov. 7, 2023)