Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: July 20, 2023
Weekly Commentary: “You can’t premiere movies anywhere without your stars,” one studio executive says about taking films to fall festivals. “No stars, no movie.”
And SAG-AFTRA has clarified that its members are not to do any promotional activity around their movies until a new contract deal is reached and ratified. So that means that the red carpets that make these festivals massive media events will be significantly less celebrity-studded. So why would studios shell out hundreds of thousands, even millions of dollars, to launch a movie at one of these gatherings?
As we enter “Barbenheimer” weekend, both films from Christopher Nolan and Greta Gerwig are receiving critical praise and are poised to have decent box office receipts. If the SAG strike continues, any movie that could do its full press tour could have a leg up on the fall competition. That could also benefit Pixar’s “Elemental,” Illumination’s “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and Sony’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.”
One lingering question surrounds non-English language titles from international territories, whose actors and writers may not have any guild affiliation but already have U.S. distribution. Could they be a benefactor? One publicist shares, “If major publications still have a presence, and the A-listers like Leonardo DiCaprio are not there to suck up all the oxygen, maybe they can have a bigger breakout or launch.”
I’ve written about what standouts are in the hunt thus far such as “Air,” “Past Lives” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” in my annual halfway column. There’s more detail on the overall movie landscape on the updated best picture page.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary voting for the shortlists will begin on Dec. 18 with the results announced on Dec. 21. The nominations voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER