Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Weekly Commentary (Updated: April 11, 2024): The Emmy race for acting supremacy among the leading women is fiercely contested this year, with three Oscar-winning titans, Jodie Foster for “True Detective: Night Country,” Brie Larson in “Lessons in Chemistry,” and Kate Winslet for “The Regime,” all vying for the top honor. Each has secured a substantial base of support within the Television Academy’s extensive membership. Yet, it’s Anna Sawai’s undeniable captivating performance in FX’s “Shōgun” as a Catholic convert and interpreter between Lord Yoshi Toranaga (Hiroyuki Sanada) and Pilot-Major Jack Blackthorne (Cosmo Jarvis) that could take it home.
The battle in this category is even more intense than in the lead actor limited series category, with Juno Temple for “Fargo,” Sofia Vergara in “Griselda,” Julianne Moore for “Mary & George,” and Naomi Watts in “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans,” each finding their own routes to potential nominations.
Revealed exclusively to Variety, “Expats” stars Nicole Kidman and Ji-young Yoo will be submitted together for lead acting accolades, creating an even more competitive landscape for the field.
With such a wealth of talent in contention, the task of whittling the nominees down to just six names will indeed be a formidable challenge for the acting peer group.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
-
Image Credit: Courtesy of HBO Max And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer and Series 1 Jodie Foster — “True Detective: Night Country” (Max) 2 Anna Sawai — “Shōgun” (FX) 3 Juno Temple — “Fargo” (FX) 4 Brie Larson — “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+) 5 Kate Winslet — “The Regime” (Max) 6 Julianne Moore — “Mary & George” (Starz) Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Image Credit: Prime Video Next in Line
Rank Performer and Series 7 Naomi Watts — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX) 8 Sofia Vergara — “Griselda” (Netflix) 9 Nicole Kidman — “Expats” (Prime Video) 10 Ji-young Yoo — “Expats” (Prime Video) 11 Ambika Mod — “One Day” (Netflix) 12 Annie Murphy — “Black Mirror” (Netflix) 13 Emma Corrin — “A Murder at the End of the World” (FX) 14 Annette Bening — “Apples Never Fall” (Peacock) 15 Uzo Aduba — “Painkiller” (Netflix) Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Image Credit: HULU Also in Contention
Rank Performer and Series 16 Aria Mia Lobereti — “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix) 17 Joey King — “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu) 18 Sigourney Weaver — “The Lost Flowers of Alice Hart” (Prime Video) 19 Carla Gugino — “Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix) 20 Zazie Beetz — “Black Mirror” (Netflix) 21 Claire Danes — “Full Circle” (Max) 22 Sandra Oh — “Quiz Lady” (Hulu) 23 Elisabeth Moss — “The Veil” (Hulu) 24 Alaqua Cox — “Echo” (Disney+) 25 Melissa McCarthy — “Unfrosted: The Pop-Tart Story” (Netflix) Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Eligible Performances (Lead Actress, Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: HBO **The list below is not complete and have been confirmed as officially submitted. All information is subject to change. Grouped by network that airs each series.
- Amanda Seyfried — “The Crowded Room” (Apple TV+)
- Brie Larson — “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
- Alaqua Cox — “Echo” (Disney+)
- Emilia Clarke — “Secret Invasion” (Disney+)
- Emma Roberts — “American Horror Story: Delicate” (FX)
- Juno Temple — “Fargo” (FX)
- Naomi Watts — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
- Emma Corrin — “A Murder at the End of the World” (FX)
- Anna Sawai — “Shōgun” (FX)
- Mia Isaac — “Black Cake” (Hulu)
- Adrienne Warren — “Black Cake” (Hulu)
- Violette Beane — “Death and Other Details” (Hulu)
- Kaitlyn Dever — “No One Will Save You” (Hulu)
- Awkwafina — “Quiz Lady” (Hulu)
- Sandra Oh — “Quiz Lady” (Hulu)
- Elisabeth Moss — “The Veil” (Hulu)
- Joey King — “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu)
- Claire Danes — “Full Circle” (Max)
- Lily-Rose Depp — “The Idol” (Max)
- Kate Winslet — “The Regime” (Max)
- Jodie Foster — “True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
- Aria Mia Lobereti — “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)
- Zazie Beetz — “Black Mirror” (Netflix)
- Annie Murphy — “Black Mirror” (Netflix)
- Carla Gugino — “Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix)
- Sofia Vergara — “Griselda” (Netflix)
- Ambika Mod — “One Day” (Netflix)
- Uzo Aduba — “Painkiller” (Netflix)
- Gillian Anderson — “Scoop” (Netflix)
- Billie Piper — “Scoop” (Netflix)
- Andrea Riseborough — “Alice & Jack” (PBS)
- Helena Bonham Carter — “Nolly” (PBS)
- Annette Bening — “Apples Never Fall” (Peacock)
- Mandy Moore — “Dr. Death” (Peacock)
- Melissa McCarthy — “Genie” (Peacock)
- Nicole Kidman — “Expats” (Prime Video)
- Ji-young Yoo — “Expats” (Prime Video)
- Sigourney Weaver — “The Lost Flowers of Alice Hart” (Prime Video)
- Kaley Cuoco — “Role Play” (Prime Video)
- Deborah Ayorinde — “Them” (Prime Video)
- Kiernan Shipka — “Totally Killer” (Prime Video)
- Julianne Moore — “Mary & George” (Starz)
-
More Information
Image Credit: Netflix 2023 category winner: Ali Wong — “Beef” (Netflix)
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs that identify as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Awards Predictions
Other Awards Predictions
Talk Series Reality Competition Program Animated Program Scripted Variety Game Show Character Voice-Over Performance Variety Special (Live) Host for a Reality or Competition Program Narrator Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) Structured Reality Documentary (Series) Directing (Series, Special) Unstructured Reality Documentary (Special) Writing (Series, Special) Directing (Reality Program) Hosted Nonfiction (Series or Special) Music (Limited, Movie, Special, Series, Documentary, Direction, Theme Music, Lyrics, Supervision) Main Title Design Writing (Nonfiction) Short Form Series Short Form (Actor/Actress) Exceptional Merit About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship, and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy, which hosts the Emmys, consists of over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.