Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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Cynthia Erivo is Elphaba in WICKED, directed by Jon M. Chu
Universal Pictures
Best Picture commentary (Updated Dec. 5, 2024): Awards season has begun.
A24’s “A Different Man” pulled off a colossal upset, winning best feature at the 2024 Gotham Awards Monday night at Cipriani Wall Street in New York City. It was followed by Brady Corbet’s historical epic “The Brutalist,” emerging as the big favorite at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, taking home two major prizes for best film and actor for Adrien Brody.
Then came the National Board of Review with Universal Pictures’ blockbuster musical “Wicked,” which was named the best film. Jon M. Chu also took home the directing prize and a special award for the collaboration of stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.
The Indie Spirits dropped their season favorites with Sean Baker’s “Anora” and Jane Schoenbrun’s “I Saw the TV Glow” leading the tally with six noms each.
Finally, the AFI Top 10 highlighted a blend of blockbuster hits, indie darlings, and bold artistic visions with movies such as “A Complete Unknown,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Nickely Boys,” “Sing Sing,” and “A Real Pain.”
Ergo, there’s a lot more to go in this unpredictable season. This week, you’ll find the entry of Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths” from Bleecker Street in the top 10 for the first time, as the studio has been hyper-focused on the international voting bloc of the industry, which has been critical for films such as “The Father” and “The Zone of Interest” landing best picture noms in their respective years.
The Golden Globe nominations will be revealed on Monday. Updates in the best picture race are below.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
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Eligible Titles (Best Picture)
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More Information (Oscars: Best Picture)
2024 category winner: “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan
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About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.