Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress — Musical Performers Zoe Saldaña and Ariana Grande Early Favorites in Competitive Race

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Supporting Actress Commentary (Updated Dec. 6, 2024): This Oscar season, the race for the women’s lead and supporting acting categories is undoubtedly the most competitive.

Take Zoe Saldaña, for instance, whose commanding turn as Rita, a lawyer entangled with a drug cartel boss in “Emilia Pérez,” has captured the industry’s attention. A box office juggernaut, Saldaña’s career-best portrayal is magnetic, deftly balancing moral conflict, earning her multiple best-in-show notices from critics. While some debate lingers about screen time, the Afro-Latina star appears to be one of the few near-certain nominees this year. In fact, her top-tier frontrunner status could bring her co-star Selena Gomez into contention. Historically, more than a third of all supporting actress lineups have included more than one performer from the same film, which keeps Gomez firmly in the conversation.

The first week of precursors has set the stage, with the National Board of Review, New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC), Gothams, Indie Spirits and AFI Top 10 announcements offering early clues on what the Oscars could do. But never forget, critics are not Oscar voters.

Nonetheless, the critics gave a boost to one of our beloved veterans. Carol Kane delivered the NYFCC’s biggest twist by winning best supporting actress for her touching performance in “Between the Temples.” The Sony Pictures Classics indie, directed by Nathan Silver, centers on a music teacher preparing for her Bat Mitzvah — a role Kane imbues with warmth and humor. The Sundance darling has cultivated a passionate following, and Kane’s triumph reignites the career of this two-time Emmy winner, who hasn’t seen an Oscar nomination since “Hester Street” in 1975. At 72, Kane proves she can excite cinephiles.

Then there’s Ariana Grande, whose performance as Glinda in Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked” will force Oscar voters — and skeptics — to take notice. Grande’s effervescent portrayal of the iconic “good witch” could land her a nomination and, dare we say, a win. Musical performances have historically resonated with the Academy, as seen with Catherine Zeta-Jones’ Oscar-winning role in “Chicago” (2002). Grande’s scene-stealing turn catapults from a global pop sensation to a bona fide movie star. Previous singers-turned-actors have found awards success, such as Barbra Streisand (“Funny Girl”), Cher (“Moonstruck”), and Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls”). If history is any guide, Grande could join this illustrious list.

And then there’s the legendary star Isabella Rossellini, whose captivating seven-minute, 51-second (according to distributor Focus Features) appearance in Edward Berger’s 120-minute religious thriller “Conclave” could be enough to finally earn the veteran actor the first Oscar nomination of her career. Portraying Sister Agnes, a nun who quietly maneuvers within the Catholic Church’s power struggles as it faces the monumental task of selecting a new pope, her restrained yet decisive turn is impactful. While some Oscar pundits may question if her limited screen time will be a hurdle, her role aligns perfectly with the original intent of the supporting categories, established at the 9th Academy Awards in 1936 to recognize impactful, secondary performances.

Make sure to watch many of this year’s hottest acting contenders on Variety’s Actors on Actors, which returns for its 21st season on Monday, Dec. 9, across Variety.com and social media channels. One conversation will air per day for 12 consecutive days. Four broadcast episodes, hosted by Clayton Davis and Angelique Jackson, will air on PBS SoCal on Jan. 9 from 8 to 10 p.m., followed by encores on public television stations across the country and the WORLD Channel (check local listings). All episodes will stream on pbssocal.org and the PBS App following their premieres.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.