A blue, anthropomorphic speed demon is expected to outpace the future king of Pride Lands at the weekend box office.
Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” is projected to claim a leading $55 million to $60 million from 3,800 North American theaters in its debut, while Disney’s “Mufasa: The Lion King” should be trotting close behind with $50 million from more than 4,000 venues. “Sonic” doesn’t open at the international box office until Christmas Day, so “Mufasa” will have free rein over global charts. The “Lion King” prequel is pacing to add an additional $130 million overseas for a promising global start of $180 million.
Neither film is expected to break franchise opening weekend records (in fact, “Sonic” is tracking for a trilogy-low), but that’s to be expected. December releases aren’t known to deliver robust debuts but, if reviews and word-of-mouth are favorable, can enjoy staying power into January and beyond. “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle,” for example, launched with just $36 million in 2017 but ended up earning a mammoth $404 million domestically and $962 million globally. And last December’s “Wonka” notched a decent $39 million to start and tapped out with $218 million in North America and $634 million worldwide.
Movie theater owners hope that’s the case as Christmas season may be more muted without a guaranteed billion-dollar blockbuster, in the vein of “Avatar: The Way of Water” or “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” to close out 2024. Universal’s “Wicked,” Disney’s “Moana 2” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” all of which opened in November, should keep drawing audiences around the holidays and assist in shrinking the year-to-date deficit. Overall domestic tickets sales are 4.8% behind 2023 and 23% behind 2019, according to Comscore.
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Jeff Fowler returned to direct “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” with Ben Schwartz back to voice the title character, a speedy blue creature with a knack for busting baddies, and Jim Carrey reprising his role as Sonic’s foe Doctor Robotnik, a mad scientist obsessed with achieving world domination. In the $122 million-budgeted threequel, Sonic teams up with pals Tails and Knuckles to stop a mysterious new adversary, Shadow the Hedgehog. But — plot twist — the trio is forced to form an unlikely alliance with Dr. Robotnik to protect the planet. The original 2020 “Sonic the Hedgehog” became a surprise success, launching with $58 million before amassing a grand total of $148 million domestically and $319 million globally — setting a then-record for the highest-grossing video game adaptation in North America. The 2022 sequel was even bigger, opening to $72 million at the domestic box office and powering to $405 million globally. Despite a potentially softer start than its predecessors, “Sonic 3” could multiply through the holidays and conclude its theatrical run as the biggest earner of the bunch.
Barry Jenkins, the Oscar-winning filmmaker of “Moonlight” and “If Beale Street Could Talk,” helmed “Mufasa,” a look at the formative years of the eventual Pride Lands ruler. The movie serves as a prequel to the studio’s 2019 photorealistic “The Lion King” remake from director Jon Favreau. Despite mixed reviews, that reboot delivered a stunning $191 million debut over the summer and eventually generated a mighty $1.66 billion at the global box office.
“Mufasa” features music by Lin-Manuel Miranda of “Hamilton,” “Encanto” and “Moana” fame, as well as a voice cast led by Aaron Pierre and Kelvin Harrison Jr. as the younger version of Mufasa (voiced by James Earl Jones in the 2019 remake) and his sinister brother Scar (voiced by Chiwetel Ejiofor in the 2019 remake). Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Mads Mikkelsen and Blue Ivy Carter round out the starry ensemble. The prequel carries a hefty budget north of $200 million, so Disney needs “Mufasa” to be the mane moviegoing event through the new year to justify that price tag and continue the studio’s hot streak of “Inside Out 2,” “Deadpool & Wolverine” and “Moana 2.”
Though given that “Sonic” should bow at No. 1 on domestic box office charts, “Mufasa” may just have to wait to be king.