Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Feature — Netflix Juggles Three Heartwarming Titles; Which Film Will International Voters Get Behind?

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Best Documentary Feature Commentary (Updated Dec. 19, 2024): Among the surprises that made the Oscars shortlist was Alexis Bloom’s “The Bibi Files,” an inside look into the corruption charges against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Gary Hustwit’s “Eno,” a generative doc about musician Brian Eno.

“Will & Harper” making the shortlist is a huge victory. Now, all it has to do is get nominated. But, never forget, we’re dealing with the Documentary Branch. They are always famously unpredictable and never without a few painful snubs. This is the same group that has shocked us by overlooking favorites like “Apollo 11,” “Jane,” “Three Identical Strangers,” and “American Symphony.”

One interesting piece of trivia to remember: Since 2000, only two filmmakers who’ve won Best Documentary Feature have managed to score another nomination after their victory. Michael Moore won for 2002’s “Bowling for Columbine” and was later nominated for 2007’s “Sicko.” Similarly, Laura Poitras won 2014’s “Citizenfour” and received another nod for 2022’s “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.” It’s surprising how many previous winners have been omitted since, including big names like Davis Guggenheim (“Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”), Alex Gibney (“Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief,” “Totally Under Control”), and Morgan Neville (“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”).

Netflix is also juggling two other docs — the presumed frontrunner “Daughters” and the beautiful and heartbreaking “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin,” which along with “Will & Harper,” all premiered at Sundance. Can they get them all into the fold?

The branch has significantly boosted international members, which opens doors for non-U.S. productions. Thanks to this broadened voter base, films like Shiori Itô’s powerful “Black Box Diaries” and Mati Diop’s “Dahomey” — which is also Senegal’s official submission for International Feature — might have a better shot.

Among the shortlist snubs were HBO’s “The Commandant’s Shadow,” Magnolia’s “Ernest Cole: Lost and Found,” and Together Films’ “Mediha,” which have been said to be very popular with branch members. While not necessarily surprising but still notable, Morgan Neville’s “Piece by Piece,” an intimate look at the life of Pharrell Williams in the form of Lego animation, was nowhere to be found.

Fifteen films will advance to the next round of the 169 that were eligible in the category. Members of the Documentary Branch will vote on which five films will become nominees.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.