Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature — Can Anything Beat ‘Emilia Pérez?’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best International Feature Commentary (Updated Dec. 19, 2024): With “Emilia Pérez” poised to be one of the leading contenders for best picture, can any film defeat the Spanish-language musical at the Oscars? Better yet, will it bring home the statuette for France for the first time in 30 years?

From the poetic minimalism of Latvia’s animated “Flow” to the audacious depictions of pain and hope reflected in the short films seen in Palestine’s “From Ground Zero,” this year’s international feature shortlist will be among the most competitive in recent memory, especially since many of them stand a very good chance of landing additional nominations outside the category. Among the other prominent inclusions are Ireland’s “Kneecap,” a rebellious biopic of the eponymous rap group, Brazil’s hopeful and tragic “I’m Still Here,” and Germany’s timely, politically charged thriller “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,”

Representing a kaleidoscope of various cultural perspectives, emotional depths and bold storytelling, these 15 films — selected from 85 eligible submissions — offer voters (and audiences) a rare opportunity to engage with global cinema.

Some notable snubs include Portugal’s “Grand Tour,” which won best director for Miguel Gomes at the Cannes Film Festival last year, in addition to Mexico’s “Sujo” and India’s “Lucky Ladies.” Many felt the country should have selected the Cannes runner-up “All We Imagine as Light,” which will compete in all other categories including best picture.

Academy members from all branches were invited to participate in the preliminary round of voting. They must have met a minimum viewing requirement to be eligible to vote in the category. In the nominations round, Academy members from all branches are invited to opt in to participate and must view all 15 shortlisted films to vote.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.