‘Anora,’ ‘Nosferatu,’ ‘Nickel Boys’ and More Could Use DGA, PGA and WGA Noms for Big Boosts in Oscar Race

After Sunday’s Golden Globes ceremony, Hollywood has officially entered the “playoff” stage of Oscar season. With over two dozen films vying for nominations across all Academy Award categories, the next week is make-or-break for awards campaigns.

AMPAS members will begin voting on the nominations on Wednesday, Jan. 8 at 9 a.m. PT. Studios are pulling out all the stops, ramping up efforts to secure their films’ places on the coveted nomination lists. Adding to the frenzy, the major Hollywood guilds — Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Directors Guild of America (DGA), Writers Guild of America (WGA), Producers Guild of America (PGA), and American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) — will release their nominations over the next three days, while voting. These guild nods can catapult films to frontrunner status or derail their campaigns entirely.

Compounding the high stakes, the Critics Choice Awards on Sunday, Jan. 14, begin just one hour before Oscar nomination voting closes at 5 p.m. PT. Every accolade and headline this week counts as studios and publicists scramble to keep their films in the conversation.

On Wednesday, Jan. 10, we’ll receive a double dose of excitement with SAG and DGA announcing. According to Variety’s final SAG predictions, Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez” is expected to dominate. Distributed by Netflix, the genre-bending film has been building momentum, and following its haul at the Golden Globes, its compelling narrative and unique fusion of music and drama, could have a strong week ahead.

There’s a five-way race for best picture, and that’s not hyperbolic.

Baker’s “Anora” currently leads with the precursors’ tally with 16 wins, making it the season’s most decorated film thus far. The understated drama has been a critical darling, premiered to rapturous acclaim at Cannes, and took home the Palme d’Or. However, its absence from the Golden Globes stage remains a sore spot. Can it rebound? Just ask anyone who worked on “Spotlight” (2014).

Hot on its heels is Corbet’s “The Brutalist,” with nine wins, including a significant victory at the Globes, Corbet’s 215-minute epic has proven to be a formidable contender. Meanwhile, Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror thriller “The Substance” has emerged as something we might need to begin considering as a dark horse in major categories. Sporting six best picture critics’ trophies, it’s captivated audiences with its visceral storytelling and feminist undertones.

At the DGA, the Best Director race is expected to align closely with the top contenders for best picture. The likeliest nominees include Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”), Sean Baker (“Anora”), Edward Berger (“Conclave”), Jon M. Chu (“Wicked”), and Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”). Corbet currently leads in director wins with 10, two more than Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”), who will need a strong showing to stay alive.

The DGA’s First-Time Feature category will be one to watch closely. The category awarding first-time narrative filmmakers puts former documentary filmmakers Payal Kapadia (“All We Imagine as Light”) and RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”) eligible for nominations and likely frontrunners to win the prize. This year’s field will also include several prominent women directors, as shown by the last three years where women dominated. Watch out for our two cinematographers who stepped behind the camera such as Rachel Morrison (“The Fire Inside”) and Ellen Kuras (“Lee”), to sneak in, alongside possible actors-turned-directors Anna Kendrick (“Woman of the Hour”) and Zoë Kravitz (“Blink Twice”).

At the PGA nominations, which drop on Friday, the guild is coming off famously matching the Oscar best picture lineup 10-for-10 last year (a first in history). We don’t expect that to repeat, not with this year deemed “Year Without a Frontrunner,” and big-budget crowd-pleasers like “Challengers” and “Inside Out 2” within arm’s reach of disrupting the race. This will also be vital for indie darlings like “A Real Pain” and “Sing Sing” if they can get into the fold.

The WGA’s nominations often differ from the Oscars due to eligibility restrictions. The list of this year’s ineligibilities are:

Ineligible original screenplay: “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow); “The Brutalist” (A24); “Didi” (Focus Features); “A Different Man” (A24); “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street); “His Three Daughters” (Netflix); “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24); “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon); “September 5” (Paramount Pictures); “The Substance” (Mubi)

Ineligible adapted screenplays: “Conclave” (Focus Features); “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix); “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Inside Out 2” (Pixar); “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics); “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Sing Sing” (A24); “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

The original list will still include frontrunner “Anora” alongside the likely contender “A Real Pain.” More notably, this can become a definitive statement for a film like Amazon MGM’s “Challengers” to make if it wants to vie for debut screenwriter Justin Kurtzes (who also has “Queer” eligible in adapted). At the same time, this becomes a (sort of) last stand for Sony Pictures’ “Saturday Night” to show up anywhere on nomination morning.

With fewer adapted works out of the running than original, the removal of “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Sing Sing,” all widely expected to land Oscar noms, leaves a field open for movies like Searchlight Pictures’ “A Complete Unknown,” Amazon MGM Studios’ “Nickel Boys” and Universal Pictures’ “Wicked.” It also becomes another shot for a “Dune: Part Two” to pick up steam, with a final spot that can be taken by streaming hit “Hit Man,” surprise box office hit “Nosferatu” and indie “Nightbitch.”

Finally, the American Society of Cinematographers is expected to honor veterans like Ed Lachman (“Maria”) and Greig Fraser (“Dune: Part Two”), while Lol Crawley (“The Brutalist”), who received a spotlight award nod for Corbet’s debut film “The Childhood of a Leader,” could pop up with his stunning camera work and atmospheric visuals.

As we march toward the Oscars, the next five days will be pivotal in shaping the narrative of this awards season. By next week, the landscape will be clearer — or, perhaps, even more thrillingly chaotic. Look at Variety’s final picks in the four guilds below.

See all Academy Award predictions

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars