Will a gritty, globe-trotting police officer and an anthropomorphic chimpanzee pop star be able to kickstart the 2025 box office?
The year’s first two new nationwide releases, Lionsgate’s “Den of Thieves 2: Pantera,” a heist thriller starring Gerard Butler as a caper-busting sheriff, and Paramount’s big-budget “Better Man,” a musical biopic in which a CGI monkey portrays the British singer Robbie Williams, are hoping to draw audiences to the big screen amid the post-holiday doldrums. However, wildfires ravaging though parts of Los Angeles could affect moviegoing in one of the biggest theatrical markets in the country. Paramount canceled the L.A. premiere of “Better Man” due to the fires and extreme winds.
The sequel to “Den of Thieves” is aiming for $11 million to $13 million from 3,000 North American theaters over the weekend, while “Better Man” is projected to bring in $2 million from a slimmer screen count of 1,200 venues. Whether “Den of Thieves 2: Pantera” steals the No. 1 spot at the domestic box office will depend on the staying power of Disney’s “Mufasa.” The “Lion King” prequel topped the charts in North America with $23.4 million over the first weekend of 2025 and looks to add $12 million to $15 million in its fourth frame. “Mufasa” has generated $170 million domestically and $478 million worldwide to date.
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Unless “Den of Thieves 2” beats expectations, initial ticket sales won’t improve upon its predecessor, which opened to $15.2 million in late January 2018 and powered to $80 million globally by the end of its theatrical run. Lionsgate believes the caper sequel will endure at the cinema throughout January, which tends to be a lighter month at the box office in terms of new releases. “Den of Thieves 2” cost $40 million, though Lionsgate usually mitigates risk by selling foreign rights to its theatrical titles.
Christian Gudegast returned to write and direct “Pantera,” which also sees the return of Butler as Big Nick, a gritty Los Angeles police officer who is now on the hunt in Europe to track down Donnie (O’Shea Jackson Jr.), an ex-marine-turned-robber who is plotting a massive diamond heist.
“Better Man,” which was acquired by Paramount for $25 million, is an off-kilter take on the recent upswing of musical biopics (films about Amy Winehouse, Bob Dylan, Elvis Presley, Whitney Houston and Bob Dylan have hit theaters in just the past three years, while one on Michael Jackson opens later this year). The story captures the rise of the best-selling local artist through the lens of a chimp because, as Williams puts it, he always felt “less evolved than other people.”
Michael Gracey, who steered “The Greatest Showman” with Hugh Jackman as P.T. Barnum to sleeper hit status, directed “Better Man.” The film launched in limited release (six venues in total) in late December and has grossed a paltry $91,696 to date. Since Williams isn’t as well known in the States as he is across the pond, reviews and word-of-mouth will factor in heavily to the commercial success of “Better Man.” Critical sentiment has been overwhelmingly positive, with Variety’s chief film critic Peter Debruge writing that “against all odds, the gimmick works, distinguishing the project from so many other cookie-cutter pop-star hagiographies.”
Hollywood is banking on 2025 as a rebound year after the pandemic and two union strikes wreaked havoc on the box office. January has only a smattering of newcomers on the calendar, including Universal’s horror thriller “Wolf Man” and Sony’s R-rated comedy “One of Them Days” with Keke Palmer (Jan. 17) and Lionsgate’s “Flight Risk,” starring Mark Wahlberg as a hitman (Jan. 24). The winter season, however, is expected to pick up with Marvel’s “Captain America: Brave New World” on Feb 14. Paging Sam Wilson!