Mikey Madison received a massive boost after winning the BAFTA for “Anora,” mainly because the film lost best picture, director, and screenplay, and she still won. Her performance has been hailed as a “pure and genuine acting showcase” by one voter and “the arrival of a star” by another. It feels very Brie Larson in “Room.”
Until recently, Demi Moore looked like the anointed winner for her transformative performance in “The Substance.” But if she loses SAG, we could be in Angela Bassett territory (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”), with only CCA and Globes to her name, and we all remember how that ended. As an industry, we seem to have underestimated the genre bias with Moore’s film. One voter stated unequivocally, “I despise ‘The Substance.’ It was gross, over the top, and I didn’t think Demi was anything special.”
It is worth noting that a few voters also state their disdain for the film but are voting for Moore anyway. “What a remarkable career she’s had, and she deserves this moment,” one voter says gleefully.
Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) could be a dark horse, especially if SAG rallies behind her. But with a messy race that would potentially show Moore, Madison, and Erivo all win some awards, the real upset pick may be Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”).
One voter shared they only watched her film in the past week and, before that, were set on voting for Madison. Instead, they’re checking Torres’ name off. The Brazilian star boasts only a Golden Globe win, and with the role — an activist fighting an oppressive regime — it’s the classic Oscar appeal. Still, no actor has won a lead acting Oscar without a nom from SAG and BAFTA, and only one person has won the Oscar with only a Golden Globe — George Clooney for “Syriana” (2005).
When you factor in Karla Sofía Gascón, who stars as the titular character in “Emilia Pérez,” the controversy is a factor, but many said that they weren’t on board with the film prior. The real question is, how do the tweets affect the movie down the ballot?
Voter #3: “We don’t see movies like ‘A Complete Unknown’ made in Hollywood anymore… Studios are scared of them.”
Best Picture: “A Complete Unknown”
Actor: Ralph Fiennes
Supporting Actor: Jeremy Strong
Actress: Demi Moore
Supporting Actress: Isabella Rossellini
Animated Feature: “The Wild Robot”
Cinematography: “Dune: Part Two”
Costume Design: “A Complete Unknown”
Director: James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Documentary Feature: “Sugarcane”
Documentary Short: “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Film Editing: “Conclave”
International Feature: “The Girl with the Needle”
Makeup and Hairstyling: “The Substance”
Original Score: “Conclave”
Original Song: “El Mal”
Production Design: “The Brutalist”
Animated Short: “Yuck!”
Live Action Short: “The Last Ranger”
Sound: “A Complete Unknown”
Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two”
Adapted Screenplay: “A Complete Unknown”
Original Screenplay: “September 5”