Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song — Is Two-Time Winner Elton John a Dark Horse to Pull Off a Hat Trick?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Original Song Commentary (Updated Dec. 19, 2024): In the world of Oscar predictions, certain constants remain: you reserve a slot for composer John Williams in the original score category (when he has a film in the running) and one for 15-time nominee Diane Warren in original song. The Academy’s Music Branch is known for its preference for familiar names and celebrated artists, a tendency that could be shaping the race again this year.

The release of the longlist provided plenty of highlights. Among them, Elton John’s inclusion for his titular documentary track “Never Too Late” was noteworthy. The two-time Oscar-winning musician has recently revealed that he has lost his eyesight, adding a poignant note to this latest recognition. Conversations with Academy branch members suggest he could secure a nomination, as John’s legacy ripples throughout the industry. His previous wins were for “The Lion King” and his own musical biopic “Rocketman.” So why not add recognition for his doc to boot?

So, who could that push out of the lineup?

Diane Warren’s track record suggests she won’t be the one missing out. Her song “The Journey” from Netflix’s “The Six Triple Eight” is on the shortlist, and the composer’s consistent campaigning prowess makes her a formidable contender.

Netflix is playing a strong hand this year with multiple entries. Two tracks from the musical film “Emilia Perez” — “El Mal” and “Mi Camino” — are in contention. Industry buzz and Oscar history suggest that at least one of these songs will secure a nomination, but the streaming giant is pushing hard for both. Add to this their campaign for “Harper and Will Go West” from the documentary “Will & Harper,” along with Warren’s potential 16th nom, and it’s clear Netflix is leaving no stone unturned.

Elsewhere, Lin-Manuel Miranda’s song “Tell Me It’s You” from Barry Jenkins’ “Mufasa: The Lion King” adds an extra layer of excitement to the race. A win would complete Miranda’s EGOT, a rare achievement in the entertainment industry. Meanwhile, “Out of Oklahoma” from the disaster epic “Twisters” is riding a wave of momentum, boosted by its Grammy nomination.

This year’s shortlist reflects a refreshing mix of the expected and the eclectic. Songs like “Sick in the Head” from Sony Pictures Classics’ “Kneecap” and “Like a Bird” from A24’s prison drama “Sing Sing” bring a sense of discovery to the field. These under-the-radar gems could be dark horses drawing comparisons to other surprise nominees through history, such as the Icelandic ballad “Húsavík” or the rap anthem “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp.”

Yet, not all contenders made the cut. Miley Cyrus’ “Beautiful That Way” from Roadside Attractions’ “The Last Showgirl” was among the 89 songs that missed the shortlist. Despite its Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations, the omission serves as a reminder that these accolades don’t always translate to Oscar recognition, and those voters are NOT Oscar members.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.