Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
SING SING, Colman Domingo
Courtesy Everett Collection
Best Actor Commentary (Updated Jan. 9, 2025): The SAG lineup delivered a roster essentially in line with expectations. Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Daniel Craig (“Queer”), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), and Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”). Notably absent, however, was Golden Globe winner Sebastian Stan, who had been in contention for both “A Different Man” and “The Apprentice.” His double snub, pointing to a potential vote-splitting issue, could hurt his momentum as the race moves forward.
However, in the best actor in a comedy or musical feature side at the Golden Globes, Stan secured a pivotal win for his role in “A Different Man.” The recognition could help Stan muscle his way into the best actor Oscar race. However, my instinct is it would be for his other Golden Globe-nominated performance, f“The Apprentice,” in which Stan plays a young Donald Trump. While it may complicate matters, as vote-splitting does make him vulnerable, Stan’s mention on the BAFTA longlist last week, and his co-star Jeremy Strong landing SAG and Globe nominations, could be what he needs to make the cut. Will it be Daniel Craig that misses out for “Queer” (which doesn’t seem to be contending in any other categories) or Colman Domingo for “Sing Sing” (which underperformed at the SAG nominations)?
It’ll be a photo finish.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
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More Information (Oscars: Best Actor)
2024 category winner: Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
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About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.