In the year without a frontrunner, the doors are still wide open. I’m predicting three films will tie for the most nominations with 10 each: “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked.”
Jacques Audiard’s crime musical “Emilia Pérez” is poised to dominate, and if it can tack on a tech nom or two, the Netflix film could become the most nominated non-English-language film in history, surpassing “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” (2000) and “Roma” (2018). The streamer’s primary awards pony could potentially go even further. On an ideal nomination day, if it lands nods in all of its “on the bubble” categories — such as cinematography, sound, and two extra bids for supporting actress (Selena Gomez) and original song — it could secure 14 nominations, tying with “All About Eve” (1950), “Titanic” (1997), and “La La Land” (2016) as the most-nominated films of all time. Notably, “La La Land,” also a musical, is the only one to lose the best picture.
At the heart of “Emilia Pérez” is Karla Sofía Gascón’s spellbinding performance, which could also make history as the first openly transgender acting nominee. However, with such a competitive lead actress race, possible vote-splitting among her co-star Zoe Saldaña (who may get elevated from supporting to lead), and critical darlings like Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) surging in the final days of voting, this could be a year where any of the presumed “locks” is absent on nomination morning.
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Still, the race for Oscar glory is fluid. The path is always open to twists and turns.
Edward Berger’s “Conclave” looks to repeat its huge BAFTA showing, including director and acting nods for Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini (it would be the veteran star’s first). The Vatican thriller is a viable best picture contender for Focus Features and could mark the studio’s first win in the top category. Fresh off his Oscar triumph with “All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022), another acclaimed hit by the German director, could once again dominate the conversation.
Meanwhile, Universal’s box office spellbinder “Wicked” appears to hold plenty of space for stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, in addition to a slew of technical noms including costumes, editing and visual effects. Still, director Jon M. Chu, who missed the DGA lineup, doesn’t seem likely to make the cut, but I wouldn’t count him out of the race by a longshot.
For many decades, one or two films have co-led the nomination tally. The last time three films tied for the most was in 1952 with “High Noon,” “Moulin Rouge,” and “The Quiet Man,” with seven each. They all went on to lose the top prize to Cecil B. DeMille’s “The Greatest Show on Earth.” As always, there will be some surprises and snubs. On the other hand, there’s a version of the announcement that sees four films with double-digit nomination tallies (if you add “The Brutalist”).
Speaking of A24’s historical epic, “The Brutalist” should net eight mentions (at least), including for Golden Globe winners Adrien Brody in best actor and Brady Corbet for directing, but supporting actress hopeful Felicity Jones and editing are two categories it could be left out entirely. At the same time, Searchlight Pictures’ Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown” has mounted a strong campaign and is likely to land three acting mentions for Timothée Chalamet (marking his second career nom), Edward Norton (would be his fourth) and breakout star Monica Barbaro. However, James Mangold, who’s never been nominated for directing, could be a notable miss despite a DGA nod. Notably, DGA hasn’t matched the Oscar directing lineup since 2009 (Kathryn Bigelow, James Cameron, Lee Daniels, Jason Reitman and Quentin Tarantino).
Despite a headline-grabbing snub for the first film, Denis Villeneuve is looking to be part of the “snubbed” list once again for “Dune: Part Two.” What’s most notable for Villeneuve is he seems to be the only previous directing nominee in the running (previously nominated for 2016’s “Arrival”). A lineup of only first-time directing nominees hasn’t happened since 1997 — winner James Cameron (“Titanic”), Peter Cattaneo (“The Full Monty”), Atom Egoyan (“The Sweet Hereafter”), Curtis Hanson (“L.A. Confidential”) and Gus Van Sant (“Good Will Hunting”).
While we’re at it, the best director category is packed with talent, and there’s concern that no women may make the cut. Hopes are high for Payal Kapadia, whose narrative debut, “All We Imagine as Light,” has been lauded by critics, and for Coralie Fargeat, whose body-horror thriller “The Substance” has been the talk of awards season, thanks to Demi Moore’s surefire best actress bid. Both women received directing nods at the Golden Globes, with Fargeat also recognized by Critics Choice and BAFTA. However, all of those honors came in expanded fields with more than five nominees. An interesting trend worth noting: in recent years, surprise international directors who landed Oscar nominations often preceded them with a win at the European Film Awards for best director — examples include Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”), Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”), Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”), and Paweł Pawlikowski (“Cold War”). Fargeat, however, was not even nominated by the EFAs.
Independent movies are aiming to break into the best picture race. Neon’s Palme d’Or winner “Anora” has been a critical darling of the season and is poised to pick up six noms, including four for writer, director, producer, and film editor Sean Baker. At the same time, Jesse Eisenberg’s moving dramedy “A Real Pain” is bolstered by its recent PGA nomination and its supporting actor frontrunner Kieran Culkin.
Trying to guess how far A24’s prison drama “Sing Sing” from Greg Kwedar has kept me up at night. Released last summer, the film could get a significant boost from the Actors Branch, as Colman Domingo is well-positioned to nab his second consecutive nod following “Rustin” (2022). Moreover, breakout star Clarence Maclin could make history as the first person nominated for both supporting actor and screenplay for the same film. It’s a race too close to call.
“September 5”
Jürgen Olczyk
I’ve also carried a hunch we could be in store for a movie that’s nominated for a single Oscar for best picture, which hasn’t occurred since “The Ox-Bow Incident” (1943). There are a few movies that could fit into that box, such as Clint Eastwood’s procedural thriller “Juror No. 2,” Tim Fehlbaum’s historical drama “September 5,” RaMell Ross’ experimental beauty “Nickel Boys” and Luca Guadganino’s sultry sports flick “Challengers.” All could be hovering in other categories, but at this time of writing, all are predicted to be shut out of the Oscars on Thursday; which would be disappointing on multiple fronts.
This year’s proceedings saw a last-minute twist, with the voting deadline extended five days because of the devastating Los Angeles wildfires. What impact this had on the final turnout remains a lingering question.
The Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, Jan. 23 by Rachel Sennot and Bowen Yang. Conan O’Brien will host the 2025 ceremony on March 2.
Here are Variety’s final predictions.
Note: All listed producers, artisans, etc., are not final. The Academy ultimately determines who receives the nomination; individual category pages, with the official rankings, will be updated throughout the week before the nominations announcement.
See all Academy Award predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
Best Picture
“Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Nick Gordon, D.J. Gugenheim, Andrew Lauren, Trevor Matthews, Andrew Morrison, Brian Young
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, James Mangold, Alex Heineman
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ewa Puszczyńska, Jennifer Semler, Jesse Eisenberg
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Monique Walton
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Marc Platt, David Stone
Alternate: “Juror No. 2”
Achievement in Directing
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Edward Berger, “Conclave”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Payal Kapadia, “All We Imagine as Light”
Alternate: James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Daniel Craig, “Queer”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Alternate: Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Alternate: Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Clarence Maclin, “Sing Sing”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Alternate: Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Last Showgirl”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Alternate: Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Original Screenplay
“All We Imagine as Light” (Payal Kapadia)
“Anora” (Sean Baker)
“The Brutalist” (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
“A Real Pain” (Jesse Eisenberg)
“The Substance” (Coralie Fargeat)
Alternate: “September 5”
Adapted Screenplay
“A Complete Unknown” (Jay Cocks, James Mangold)
“Conclave” (Peter Straughan)
“Emilia Pérez” (Jacques Audiard)
“Sing Sing” (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)
“Wicked” (Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox)
Alternate: “Nickel Boys”
Animated Feature
“Flow” (Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, Gregory Zalcman)
“Inside Out 2” (Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen)
“Memoir of a Snail” (Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney)
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham, Richard Beek)
“The Wild Robot” (Chris Sanders, Jeff Hermann)
Alternate: “Moana 2”
Production Design
“The Brutalist” (Judy Becker)
“Conclave” (Suzie Davies, Roberta Federico)
“Dune: Part Two” (Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau, Patrice Vermette)
“Nosferatu” (Craig Lathrop)
“Wicked” (Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales)
Alternate: “A Complete Unknown”
Cinematography
“The Brutalist” (Lol Crawley)
“Conclave” (Stéphane Fontaine)
“Emilia Pérez” (Paul Guilhaume)
“Maria” (Edward Lachmann)
“Nosferatu” (Jarin Blaschke)
Alternate: “Dune: Part Two”
Costume Design
“A Complete Unknown” (Arianne Phillips)
“Conclave” (Lisy Christl)
“Gladiator II” (Janty Yates)
“Nosferatu” (Linda Muir)
“Wicked” (Paul Tazewell)
Alternate: “Blitz”
Film Editing
“Anora” (Sean Baker)
“Conclave” (Nick Emerson)
“Dune: Part Two” (Joe Walker)
“Emilia Pérez” (Juliette Welfling)
“Wicked” (Myron Kerstein)
Alternate: “A Complete Unknown”
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Dune: Part Two” (Love Larson, Eva Von Bahr)
“Emilia Pérez” (Julia Floch Carbonel, Simon Livet)
“Nosferatu” (Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton, David White)
“The Substance” (Pierre-Olivier Persin)
“Wicked” (Frances Hannon, Sarah Nuth, Laura Blount)
Alternate: “A Different Man”
Sound
“A Complete Unknown” (Ted Caplan, Tod Maitland, David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Donald Sylvester)
“Dune: Part Two” (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill)
“Gladiator II” (Matthew Collinge, Danny Sheehan, Paul Massey, Stéphane Bucher)
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Steve Morrow, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, Dean A. Zupancic)
“Wicked” (Nancy Nugent Title, John Marquis, Andy Nelson, Simon Hayes)
Alternate: “Emilia Pérez”
Visual Effects
“Better Man” (Luke Miller, David Clayton, Keith Herft, Peter Stubbs)
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Swen Gillberg, Matthew Twyford, Vincent Papaix, Dominic Tuohy)
“Dune: Part Two” (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer)
“Gladiator II” (Mark Bakowski, Pietro Ponti, Nikki Penny, Neil Corbould)
“Wicked” (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould, David Shirk)
Alternate: “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
Original Score
“The Brutalist” (Daniel Blumberg)
“Conclave” (Volker Bertelmann)
“Emilia Pérez” (Clément Ducol, Camille)
“The Room Next Door” (Alberto Iglesias)
“The Wild Robot” (Kris Bowers)
Alternate: “Wicked”
Original Song
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Elton John & Brandi Carlile)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
“Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” (Móglaí Bap, Mo Chara, DJ Próvaí, Adrian Louis Richard Mcleod, and Toddla T)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Diane Warren)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi)
Alternate: “Harper and Will Go West” from “Will & Harper”
Documentary Feature
“Daughters” (Angela Patton, Natalie Rae)
“No Other Land” (Yuval Abraham, Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Rachel Szor, Fabien Greenberg, Bård Kjøge Rønning)
“Porcelain War” (Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska, Paula DuPré Pesmen)
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Johan Grimonprez, Rémi Grellety, Daan Milius)
“Sugarcane” (Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie)
Alternate: “Union”
International Feature
“Emilia Pérez” from France
“Flow” from Latvia
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil
“Kneecap” from Ireland
“Vermiglio” from Italy
Alternate: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Animated Short
“A Bear Named Wojtek” (Ian Gardner, Iain Harvey)
“In the Shadow of Cypress” (Hossein Molayemi, Shirin Sohani)
“Maybe Elephants” (Torill Kove, Alex Ivanovici)
“Wander to Wonder” (Nina Gantz, Stienette Bosklopper)
“Yuck!” (Loïc Espuche, Juliette Marquet)
Alternate: “The 21”
Documentary Short
“Death By Numbers” (Kim A. Snyder, Maria Cuomo Cole)
“I Am Ready, Warden” (Smriti Mundhra, Nina Aujla)
“Incident” (Bill Morrison, Jamie Kalven)
“Once Upon a Time in Ukraine” (Betsy West, Earle Mack)
“A Swim Lesson” (Rashida Jones, Will McCormack)
Alternate: “Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World”
Live Action Short
“Anuja” (Adam J. Graves, Mindy Kaling)
“Dovecote” (Marco Perego, Zoe Saldaña)
“The Last Ranger” (Cindy Lee, Will Hawkes)
“A Lien” (David Cutler-Kreutz, Sam Cutler-Kreutz)
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” (Nebojsa Slijepcevic, Danijel Pek)
Alternate: “The Ice Cream Man”