Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.
To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE EMMYS COLLECTIVEVisit each category, per the individual awards show from THE EMMYS HUBTo see old predictions and commentary, click the EMMY PREDICTIONS ARCHIVESFor film awards predictions go toTHE OSCARS HUB
UPDATED: April 14, 2022
2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:
It’s just the beginning of what will be a very competitive Emmy race for lead actor drama. Bob Odenkirk could rally a groundswell of support for his farewell season of “Better Call Saul” from AMC but he’ll face the double dose of Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong from HBO’s “Succession.”
Not to mention, Lee Jung-jae, who won the Critics Choice and SAG Award for “Squid Game” is very much on the table. It’ll be interesting to see where Adam Scott could fit into the conversation with an excellent inaugural season of “Severance” from Apple TV+.
There’s plenty more to consider but it’s still early, with lots more to cover, including Variety’s reporting that “Loki” will be submitted in the drama categories.
The Emmy eligibility period runs from June 1, 2021, to May 31, 2022. The deadline for entering programs for Primetime programming and uploading all entry materials is on May 12, 2022, at 6:00 PM PT.
The nomination round of voting runs from June 16 to June 27. The official nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced Tuesday, July 12.
The list of programs and potential nominees listed below is incomplete and is subject to change. The full television awards season calendar is linked here.
2021 category winner: Josh O’Connor, “The Crown” (Netflix)
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
Lee Jung-jae stars in Netflix’ “Squid Game”.
Everett Collection
| AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| RANK | SERIES | NETWORK | |
| 1 | Bob Odenkirk | “Better Call Saul” | AMC |
| 2 | Jeremy Strong | “Succession” | HBO |
| 3 | Lee Jung-jae | “Squid Game” | Netflix |
| 4 | Brian Cox | “Succession” | HBO |
| 5 | Jason Bateman | “Ozark” | Netflix |
| 6 | Kevin Costner | “Yellowstone” | Paramount Network |
| NEXT IN LINE | |||
| 7 | Sterling K. Brown | “This Is Us” | NBC |
| 8 | Adam Scott | “Severance” | Apple TV+ |
| 9 | John C. Reilly | “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” | HBO |
| 10 | Courtney B. Vance | “61st Street” | AMC |
| OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS | |||
| 11 | Milo Ventimiglia | “This Is Us” | NBC |
| 12 | Jonathan Bailey | “Bridgerton” | Netflix |
| 13 | J.K. Simmons | “Night Sky” | Amazon Prime Video |
| 14 | Josh Brolin | “Outer Range” | Amazon Prime Video |
| 15 | Lee Min-Ho | “Pachinko” | Apple TV+ |
| 16 | Chiwetel Ejiofor | “The Man Who Fell to Earth” | Showtime |
| 17 | Gary Oldman | “Slow Horses” | Apple TV+ |
| 18 | Jeff Daniels | “American Rust” | Showtime |
| 19 | Mike Colter | “Evil” | Paramount+ |
| 20 | Paul Giamatti | “Billions” | Showtime |
| ALSO IN CONTENTION | |||
| 21 | Tom Hiddleston | “Loki” | Disney+ |
| 22 | Ewan McGregor | “Obi-Wan Kenobi” | Disney+ |
| 23 | Justin Hartley | “This Is Us” | NBC |
| 24 | Omar Sy | “Lupin” | Netflix |
| 25 | Sam Heughan | “Outlander” | Starz |
| 26 | Sam Waterston | “Law and Order” | NBC |
| 27 | Tom Blyth | “Billy the Kid” | Epix |
| 28 | Michael C. Hall | “Dexter: New Blood” | Showtime |
| 29 | Cillian Murphy | “Peaky Blinders” | BBC |
| 30 | Forest Whitaker | “Godfather of Harlem” | Epix |
| UNRANKED CONTENDERS | |||
| — | Abubakar Salim | “Raised by Wolves” | HBO/HBO Max |
| — | Adrien Brody | “Chapelwaite” | Epix |
| — | Alan Ritchson | “Reacher” | Amazon Prime Video |
| — | Ansel Elgort | “Tokyo Vice” | HBO/HBO Max |
| — | Anson Mount | “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” | Paramount+ |
| — | Anthony Anderson | “Law and Order” | NBC |
| — | Bill Pullman | “The Sinner” | USA Network |
| — | Billy Bob Thornton | “Goliath” | Amazon Prime Video |
| — | Clive Owen | “Lisey’s Story” | Apple TV+ |
| — | Corey Stoll | “Billions” | Showtime |
| — | Damson Idris | “Snowfall” | FX |
| — | Daveed Diggs | “Snowpiercer” | TNT |
| — | Freddie Highmore | “The Good Doctor” | ABC |
| — | Harold Perrineau | “From” | Epix |
| — | J.D. Pardo | “Mayans M.C.” | FX |
| — | Jabari Banks | “Bel-Air” | Peacock |
| — | Jared Harris | “Foundation” | Apple TV+ |
| — | Jason Mamoa | “See” | Apple TV+ |
| — | Jeremy Renner | “Mayor of Kingstown” | Paramount+ |
| — | Jim Sturgess | “Home Before Dark” | Apple TV+ |
| — | John Cho | “Cowboy Bebop” | Netflix |
| — | Ken Watanabe | “Tokyo Vice” | HBO/HBO Max |
| — | Lee Pace | “Foundation” | Apple TV+ |
| — | Morgan Spector | “The Gilded Age” | HBO |
| — | Patrick Stewart | “Star Trek: Picard” | Paramount+ |
| — | Peter Krause | “9-1-1” | Fox |
| — | Rick Glassman | “As We See It” | Amazon Prime Video |
| — | Sean Bean | “Snowpiercer” | TNT |
| — | Temuera Morrison | “The Book of Boba Fett” | Disney+ |
| — | Toby Kebbell | “Servant” | Apple TV+ |
| — | Wagner Moura | “Shining Girls” | Apple TV+ |
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Lead Actor Drama)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television’s most prestigious artistic award. There are many records held for both wins and nominations in the near eight decades.
For wins: Bryan Cranston (AMC’s “Breaking Bad”) and Dennis Franz (ABC’s “NYPD Blue”) hold the record for the most wins in this category with four, with the former winning three consecutively and the latter two. Five actors have won three times — Bill Cosby, Peter Falk, James Gandolfini, James Spader and Robert Young.
Four actors have been nominated in this category eight times – Raymond Burr, Peter Falk, Dennis Franz, and Jon Hamm. James Garner has the second most nods with seven. Michael C. Hall, Hugh Laurie, Martin Sheen and Kiefer Sutherland have the most nominations at six, without winning (although Sheen has won an Emmy for guest actor in a comedy series for “Murphy Brown” in 1994).
“NYPD Blue” has the leading series to have nominations in this category with 14, followed by “St. Elsewhere” at 10 and “Columbo,” “Law & Order” and “Mad Men” at eight apiece.
2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions
- Outstanding Drama Series
- Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
- Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
- Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
- Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
- Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
- Outstanding Comedy Series
- Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series or Anthology Series or Movie
- Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special
- Outstanding Competition Program
- Outstanding Variety Talk Series
- Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
- Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
- Outstanding Variety Special (Live)
2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions
- Outstanding Television Movie
- Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
- Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
- Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Reality Host
- Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series
- Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series
- Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special
- Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special
- Outstanding Animated Program
- Outstanding Short Form Animated Program
- Outstanding Voice-Over Performance
- Outstanding Narrator
- Outstanding Structured Program
- Outstanding Unstructured Program
- Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series
- Outstanding Documentary Special
- Outstanding Documentary Filmmaking
- Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
- Outstanding Main Title Design
- Outstanding Main Title Theme Music
- Outstanding Music for Series
- Outstanding Music for Limited Series
- Outstanding Music and Lyrics
- Outstanding Music Supervision
About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.
- The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.