Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.
To see all the latest FILM predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE OSCARS COLLECTIVEVisit each category, per the individual awards show from THE OSCARS HUB (coming soon)To see old predictions and commentary, click the OSCARS PREDICTIONS ARCHIVESLink to TV awards is atTHE EMMYS HUB
UPDATED: July 28, 2022
2023 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTOR
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:
The first images dropped for Darren Aronofsky’s “The Whale” with Brendan Fraser beginning what looks to be the comeback story of the year for A24.
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Oscars Predictions Hub
More to come.
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub
2022 category winner: Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Name | Film | Distributor |
| 1 | Hugh Jackman | “The Son” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| Peter as his busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into disarray when his ex-wife Kate turns up with their teenage son, Nicholas. | |||
| 2 | Brendan Fraser | “The Whale” | A24 |
| A reclusive English teacher suffering from severe obesity attempts to reconnect with his estranged teenage daughter for one last chance at redemption. | |||
| 3 | Bill Nighy | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| An English-language adaptation of the script of “Ikiru” (1952), set in London in the 1950s. | |||
| 4 | Daniel Giménez Cacho | “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” | Netflix |
| The film explores the political and social modernity of Mexico. | |||
| 5 | Austin Butler | “Elvis” | Warner Bros |
| Biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker. | |||
| Next in Line | |||
| 6 | Song Kang-ho | “Broker” | Neon |
| Boxes that are left out for people to anonymously drop off their unwanted babies. | |||
| 7 | Adam Driver | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| “White Noise” dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death, and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world. | |||
| 8 | Christian Bale | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| Follows a veteran detective who investigates the murders, helped by a detail-oriented young cadet who will later become a world famous author, Edgar Allan Poe. | |||
| 9 | Jeremy Pope | “The Inspection” | A24 |
| Based on the life of filmmaker and Marine Corps veteran Elegance Bratton. | |||
| 10 | Tom Cruise | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| After more than thirty years of service as one of the Navy’s top aviators, Pete Mitchell is where he belongs, pushing the envelope as a courageous test pilot and dodging the advancement in rank that would ground him. | |||
| Other Top-Tier Contenders | |||
| 11 | Colin Farrell | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 12 | Harry Styles | “My Policeman” | Amazon Studios |
| 13 | Colin Firth* | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 14 | Christian Bale | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| 15 | Diego Calva | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| 16 | Winston Duke* | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| 17 | Jim Parsons | “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” | Focus Features |
| 18 | Paul Mescal | “Aftersun” | A24 |
| 19 | Ewan McGregor* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| 20 | Mehdi Bajestani | “Holy Spider” | Utopia |
| Also In Contention | |||
| 21 | Billy Eichner | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| 22 | Tom Hanks | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| 23 | Adam Sandler | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| 24 | Daniel Craig | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| 25 | Eddie Redmayne | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| 26 | Kelvin Harrison Jr. | “Chevalier” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 27 | Mark Rylance | “The Phantom of the Open” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| 28 | Harris Dickinson | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| 29 | Park Hae-il | “Decision to Leave” | Mubi |
| 30 | Caleb Landry Jones | “Nitram” | IFC Films |
| Other Awards Possibilities | |||
| 31 | Daniel Kaluuya | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| 32 | Patton Oswalt | “I Love My Dad” | Magnolia Pictures |
| 33 | Sam Worthington | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| 34 | Steve Coogan | “The Lost King” | Warner Bros. |
| 35 | Ricardo Darín | “Argentina, 1985” | Amazon Studios |
| 36 | Viggo Mortensen | “Crimes of the Future” | Neon |
| 37 | Zac Efron | “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” | Apple Original Films |
| 38 | Cooper Raiff | “Cha Cha Real Smooth” | Apple Original Films |
| 39 | Jack O’Connell | “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” | Netflix |
| 40 | Brad Pitt* | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| Unranked Possible Contenders | |||
| — | Aaron Pierre* | “Brother” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Adam Sandler | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| — | Adam Sandler | “Spaceman” | Netflix |
| — | Alexander Skarsgård | “The Northman” | Focus Features |
| — | Antonio Banderas | “Official Competition” | IFC Films |
| — | Austin Butler | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Benedict Cumberbatch | “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Bill Nighy | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Billy Eichner | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Brad Pitt | “Bullet Train” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Brad Pitt* | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Brendan Fraser | “The Whale” | A24 |
| — | Brendan Gleeson* | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Brian Cox | “Prisoner’s Daughter” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Caleb Landry Jones | “Nitram” | IFC Films |
| — | Casey Affleck | “Dreamin’ Wild” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Chris Evans | “The Gray Man” | Netflix |
| — | Chris Evans | “Lightyear” | Pixar |
| — | Chris Hemsworth | “Thor: Love and Thunder” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Christian Bale | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Christian Bale | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| — | Colin Farrell | “After Yang” | A24 |
| — | Colin Farrell | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Colin Farrell | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Colin Firth* | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Cooper Raiff | “Cha Cha Real Smooth” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Daniel Craig | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Daniel Giménez Cacho | “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” | Netflix |
| — | Daniel Kaluuya | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| — | David Earl | “Brian and Charles” | Focus Features |
| — | Diego Calva | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Dwayne Johnson | “Black Adam” | Warner Bros |
| — | Eddie Redmayne | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| — | Eden Dambrine | “Close” | A24 |
| — | Elio Germano | “Il Signore Delle Formiche” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Ethan Hawke* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Ewan McGregor* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Finn Wolfhard | “When You Finish Saving the World” | A24 |
| — | Gabrielle LaPelle | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| — | George Clooney | “Ticket to Paradise” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Géza Röhrig | “The Way of the Wind” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Gregory Mann | “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” | Netflix |
| — | Harris Dickinson | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| — | Harry Styles | “My Policeman” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Hugh Jackman | “The Son” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Idris Elba | “Three Thousand Years of Longing” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Jack O’Connell | “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” | Netflix |
| — | Jake Gyllenhaal | “Ambulance” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Jalyn Hall* | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Ji-Min Park | “Return to Seoul” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Jim Parsons | “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” | Focus Features |
| — | Jo Koy | “Easter Sunday” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Joel Edgerton | “The Stranger” | Transmission Films |
| — | Justin Chatwin | “The Walk” | Vertical Entertainment |
| — | Kelvin Harrison Jr. | “Chevalier” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Lamar Johnson* | “Brother” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Marin Grigore | “R.M.N.” | IFC Films |
| — | Mark Rylance | “The Phantom of the Open” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Matthias Schweighöfer | “The Swimmers” | Netflix |
| — | Mehdi Bajestani | “Holy Spider” | Utopia |
| — | Michael Banks Repeta | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| — | N.T. Rama Rao Jr. | “RRR” | Raftar Creations |
| — | Nicholas Hoult | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Nicolas Cage | “Butcher’s Crossing” | Saban Films |
| — | Nicolas Cage | “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” | Lionsgate |
| — | Owen Teague | “Montana Story” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Park Hae-il | “Decision to Leave” | Mubi |
| — | Pascal Greggory | “One Fine Morning” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Patton Oswalt | “I Love My Dad” | Magnolia Pictures |
| — | Paul Mescal | “Aftersun” | A24 |
| — | Ralph Fiennes | “The Forgiven” | Roadside Attractions |
| — | Ralph Fiennes* | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Ricardo Darín | “Argentina, 1985” | Amazon Studios |
| — | RJ Cyler | “Emergency” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Robert Pattinson | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Ryan Gosling | “The Gray Man” | Netflix |
| — | Sam Rockwell | “See How They Run” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Sam Worthington | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Sebastian Maniscalco | “About My Father” | Lionsgate |
| — | Song Kang-ho | “Broker” | Neon |
| — | Sope Dirisu | “Mr. Malcolm’s List” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Steve Coogan | “The Lost King” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Taj Atwal | “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Timothée Chalamet | “Bones & All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Tom Burke | “The Wonder” | Netflix |
| — | Tom Cruise | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Tom Hanks | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Viggo Mortensen | “Crimes of the Future” | Neon |
| — | Viggo Mortensen* | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Vincent Lindon | “Both Side of the Blade” | IFC Films |
| — | Will Ferrell | “Spirited” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Winston Duke* | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Zac Efron | “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Zachary Levi | “Shazam! Fury of the Gods” | Warner Bros. |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
About the Academy Awards (Oscars)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
- The 95th Oscars ceremony at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC