Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Original Song
THE LITTLE MERMAID, Halle Bailey as Ariel, 2023. ph: Giles Keyte / © Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection
©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 10, 2023): Strategizing for the music races has become increasingly complex in recent years, with mounting fears of vote-splitting between multiple songs.
Per Academy rules for submitting: “No more than three (3) songs from any one film may be submitted for Original Song, regardless of writer(s).”
Regarding the shortlist of 15 songs that will be announced in December, before the official nominees in January, only two original songs can be nominated as stated: “No more than two songs from any one film by the exact same writers may be shortlisted. If more than two songs from a film by the exact same writers are in contention, the two songs with the most votes will advance to the shortlist. However, no more than two songs from any one film, regardless of writers, may be nominated for the Original Song award.”
The awards team handling Greta Gerwig’s box office smash “Barbie” has a difficult decision, as anything submitted beyond the two memorable tracks — “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken” — is a gamble. You could have the “wrong” songs represented, making a win more difficult. But with big names like Dua Lipa and Lizzo on the soundtrack, only one more can be added to the mix.
An Oscar ceremony opening with Ryan Gosling belting out “I’m Just Ken” is something we can keep praying about daily.
Given a choice, I would only submit the two showstopping numbers, but with a third, they should roll the dice with Dua Lipa’s dance track. There’s also Grammy nominations ahead of us.
The live-action version of the summer blockbuster “The Little Mermaid” is angling for Oscar attention, and the studio has confirmed three original songs will be submitted for consideration, all penned by eight-time Academy Award winner Alan Menken and two-time nominee Lin-Manuel Miranda. According to Disney’s FYC awards site, it will go forth with “For the First Time,” “The Scuttlebutt” and “Wild Uncharted Waters.” The rap number “Scuttlebutt” is the most memorable, but the emotional “First Time” also has merits. Tough one.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
Listed producer credits are not final and are subject to change. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — “I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
- “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Better Place” by Justin Timberlake
- “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “This Wish” by Julia Michaels and Benjamin Rice
- “Rustin” (Netflix) — “Road to Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz
Next in Line
- “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures) — “The Fire Inside” by Diane Warren
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — “Dance the Night” by Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — “Am I Dreaming” by Leland Wayne, Rakim Mayers, Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Landon Wayne
- “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination) — “Peaches” by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond, and John Spiker
- “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) — “High Life” by John Carney and Gary Clark
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — To be announced
- “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “The Scuttlebutt” by Alan Menken and Lin-Manuel Miranda
- “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “For the First Time” by Alan Menken and Lin-Manuel Miranda
- “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Wild Uncharted Waters” by Alan Menken and Lin-Manuel Miranda
- “80 for Brady” (Paramount Pictures) — “Gonna Be You” by Diane Warren
- “Past Lives” (A24) — “Quiet Eyes” by Zach Dawes and Sharon Von Etten
- “Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures) — “Camp Isn’t Home” by Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt and Mark Sonnenblick
- “Dicks: The Musical” (A24) — “All Love is Love” by Aaron Jackson and Josh Sharp
- “Dicks: The Musical” (A24) — “Out-Alpha the Alpha” by Megan Thee Stallion
- “Elemental” (Pixar) — “Steal the Show” by Lauv, Michael Matosic and Thomas Newman
Also In Contention
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — “Pink” by Andrew Wyatt, Eric Burton Frederic, Mark Ronson, Melissa Jefferson
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — “Speed Drive” by Charlotte Aitchison, David James Parker, Easyfun, Ewart Everton Brown, Fabian Peter Torsson, Joakim Frans Åhlund, Klas Frans Åhlund, Michael Chapman, Nicholas Chinn, Patrik Knut Arve, Sylvia Robinson, Troy Rami
- “Silver Dollar Road” (Amazon MGM Studios) — “Wounded Heart” by Ondara
- “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Perfect” by TBA
- “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Let’s Get Married” by TBA
- “Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — To be announced
- “Love Gets a Room” (Buffalo 8) — To be announced
- “Carmen” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “Lullaby / Beyond – Vive La Musique” by Nicholas Britell
- “Carmen” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “Réponds-nous” by TBA
- “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures) — To be announced
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- “Dicks: The Musical” (A24) — “All Love is Love” by Aaron Jackson and Josh Sharp
- “Dicks: The Musical” (A24) — “Out-Alpha the Alpha” by Megan Thee Stallion
- “Past Lives” (A24) — “Quiet Eyes” by Zach Dawes and Sharon Von Etten
- “Silver Dollar Road” (Amazon MGM Studios) — “Wounded Heart” by Ondara
- “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) — “High Life” by John Carney and Gary Clark
- “Love Gets a Room” (Buffalo 8) — To be announced
- “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Perfect” by TBA
- “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Let’s Get Married” by TBA
- “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Watch Me Work” by TBA
- “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Family” by TBA
- “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures) — “The Fire Inside” by Diane Warren
- “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination) — “Peaches” by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond, and John Spiker
- “Rustin” (Netflix) — “Road to Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz
- “80 for Brady” (Paramount Pictures) — “Gonna Be You” by Diane Warren
- “Elemental” (Pixar) — “Steal the Show” by Lauv, Michael Matosic and Thomas Newman
- “Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures) — “Camp Isn’t Home” by Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt and Mark Sonnenblick
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — “Am I Dreaming” by Leland Wayne, Rakim Mayers, Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Landon Wayne
- “Carmen” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “Lullaby / Beyond – Vive La Musique” by Nicholas Britell
- “Carmen” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “Réponds-nous” by TBA
- “Carmen” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “Ven a Mí” by Nicholas Britell
- “Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — To be announced
- “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “For the First Time” by Alan Menken and Lin-Manuel Miranda
- “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Wild Uncharted Waters” by Alan Menken and Lin-Manuel Miranda
- “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “The Scuttlebutt” by Alan Menken and Lin-Manuel Miranda
- “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures) — To be announced
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — “Pink” by Andrew Wyatt, Eric Burton Frederic, Mark Ronson, Melissa Jefferson
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — “Speed Drive” by Charlotte Aitchison, David James Parker, Easyfun, Ewart Everton Brown, Fabian Peter Torsson, Joakim Frans Åhlund, Klas Frans Åhlund, Michael Chapman, Nicholas Chinn, Patrik Knut Arve, Sylvia Robinson, Troy Rami
- “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — To be announced
2022 category winner: “RRR” (Variance Films) — “Naatu Naatu” by M. M. Keeravani (music) and Chandrabose (lyrics)
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.