The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) will reveal its nominations tomorrow and we’re expecting anarchy, at least in the acting categories.
Beefing up its membership considerably over the last few years, and instituting jury methods to the voting process in performance and director categories last year, yielded an unexpected field of contenders that may or may not have a rippling influence on the Oscars race.
Notable actors are looking for boosts from the British voting bloc, including Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”), Andrew Garfield (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye” and “Tick, Tick … Boom!”) and Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”).
Following the results of a diversity review, the group threw the awards season for a loop with surprise selections like Radha Blank and Adarsh Gourav last year. The top two vote-getters from Round One are automatic nominees, but we don’t know who those individuals are, nor is it clear if the jury knows either.
Some leading contenders eyeing their first BAFTA nomination are Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”), who, despite two Oscar wins with eight total noms, has never been recognized by his colleagues across the pond. Likewise, his leading actor competitor Will Smith (“King Richard”) has never been nominated. So my best guess is neither were in the top two for Round One, and we’ll probably see just one of them make the final six.
Last year, the leading actress race put the nail in the coffin for Carey Mulligan when she was snubbed, with only Vanessa Kirby and Frances McDormand representing the Oscar lineup — not expecting too much crossover this time either. Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”) and Kidman feel safe and are the most likely top two in the category. We could see a spread that includes Emilia Jones (“CODA”), Renate Reinsve (“The Worst Person in the World”) and Tessa Thompson (“Passing”). It’s still a coinflip if consumer favorites Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”) and Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”) will both make the cut.
The predicted nomination tally shows Cary Joji Fukanaga’s “No Time to Die” to lead the nominations with 11, including best film and Daniel Craig and Ana de Armas in acting categories. Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” and Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune” are expected to have a robust day with 10 noms each. The former could switch between expected Oscar nominee Caitríona Balfe in favor of her co-star Judi Dench. You can never really tell with the Brits.
The forecast for Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” seems to bubble around eight noms, including possible double mentions for David Alvarez and Mike Faist, who have been absent from the circuit this year despite critical praise. Likewise, Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” is projected to garner around seven noms, assuming that the voters snub Kirsten Dunst (hopefully, they do not) and a couple of the techs (i.e.,,, casting, editing and sound).
Check out the full list of predicted nominees down below.
All credits for the films in their respective categories are not finalized and will be determined by the Academy. Distributors listed are for the U.S.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER